AFL 2025 Brownlow Medal Winner Betting – Odds, Tips & Predictions

The Brownlow Medal is the most prestigious individual award in the AFL – the Norm Smith perhaps its only contender – being awarded each year to the player adjudged to be the best (and technically, fairest) throughout the course of the home and away season. Many of the game’s elite have at least one ‘Charlie’ locked away in their trophy cabinet, and its prestige and the event that is Brownlow Medal Night makes betting on the Brownlow Medal a popular pastime. The 2025 edition of the award is shaping up as a three-horse race with Nick Daicos, Jordan Dawson and Bailey Smith leading the charge, but there is still plenty of time for that to change over the remainder of the season. 

The Brownlow Medal market allows you to bet on any player to win the award, but with its punting popularity booming in recent years, there are now a plethora of other markets available. Betting on individual players to record the most votes for their team has become a fan favourite, particularly given the ability to create multis across various teams with many Brownlow Medal betting sites. Information abounds online about who might poll when, so get your spreadsheets ready for the biggest awards night in footy.

Entering the second half of the season, there are three runaway favourites and two clear chasers, but there is still plenty of time for an outsider or two to make a run. Check out the odds below. 

With the bookies divided over the Brownlow Medal favourite at the time of writing, it’s safe to say a close race could be on the cards. Below, take a look at who might end up winning it. 

Though he’s only played three full AFL seasons, Nick Daicos could very easily already have a couple of Brownlows to his name. He picked up 28 votes in 2023 but fell just short after missing the last three games of the home and away season, before accumulating a massive 38 last year, only to be bested by Patrick Cripps’ historic polling season.

There’s an argument to be made that he hasn’t been as consistently dominant this year as he was last, but that’s not saying much. The Magpies superstar is still in the top ten in the comp for disposals per game, and as we all know, when he does get it he uses it as well as anyone.

Daicos has already demonstrated his penchant for vote-getting, and there is no reason to expect that won’t continue this season. While there are plenty of other very good players on his team, none stand out like the younger Daicos brother, and with his Pies sitting clear atop the ladder at the time of writing, he should be polling a large number of votes once again this year. 

Bet on Nick Daicos to win the Brownlow Medal at $4.00 with Bet365 

Bailey Smith’s move to Geelong was 2024’s worst kept secret as he rehabbed from his ACL injury with the Bulldogs, but while everyone knew it was coming, few could have guessed the impact that he would have in his first season in the blue and white hoops. Smith has been nothing short of dominant in his new colours, winning more footy than anyone in the league and having a major impact on the Cats’ strong season to date.

Smith is averaging a huge 32 touches per game at the time of writing, and his ability to break the lines and have an impact forward of centre means those possessions are worth their weight in gold. Just once in his first 13 games for the Cats did Smith have less than 28 touches, and with 35 or more four times in that span he will be well and truly on the umpires’ radar.

One thing going against Smith is that he hasn’t polled particularly well in the past, having never amassed more than 10 votes in his previous five seasons. But this Cats team has less standout vote-getters likely to get in his way than his previous Dogs side. His line-breaking ability makes Smith a hard player to miss, and the way he is going he should be comfortably pushing the 30-vote mark.

Bet on Bailey Smith to win the Brownlow Medal at $4.00 with PlayUp  

Since moving to Adelaide four years ago, Jordan Dawson has established himself as one of the game’s elite, and he is doing that reputation no harm so far this season. The Crows’ captain might not have the gaudy numbers of the above two players, but his ability to find the scoreboard (he booted multiple goals from the midfield three times in his first 14 games this season), elite ball use and overhead capability mean that what he might lack in quantity he more than makes up for in quality.

In the last two years Dawson has polled 20 and 18 votes in the Brownlow Medal – good numbers, but a fair way off what’s needed to win it. The question surrounding him this year is has he improved sufficiently to pick up the extra ten or so votes that are likely required to put him in the picture.

While he’s clearly one of the best players in the business, on an individual note the answer to that question may be no. But while the Crows have won just 11 and 8 games in their past two years, they are looking likely to go closer to 15 and potentially challenge for the top four this year, which means the team overall will likely be getting a lot more votes. Of the three favourites, he would be the player I’d be least inclined to bet on, but that’s not to say he is not right in there with a shot. 

Bet on Jordan Dawson to win the Brownlow Medal at $4.00 with PlayUp 

Caleb Serong doesn’t get the attention he probably deserves in the AFL world, quietly going about his business in the west, but he is up there with the best accumulators in the game and it would be a huge surprise if he doesn’t poll close to 30 votes this season. Serong is averaging a tick under 30 touches per game, and while he might not have the damaging speed or ball use by foot of some others in this conversation, his ability to create space for teammates by hand is as good as just about anybody.

Serong has already proven himself to be a vote-getter, picking up 24 votes in 2023 and then 28 last year. Of course, given those 28 saw him fall a ridiculous 17 short of Cripps, he was never really in the mix in 2024, but if he gets to that number or just beyond it and this year’s vote count is a little less insane, he will be right in the mix.

The Dockers’ midfielder rarely has a bad game, and with four 35+ possession games by Round 16 he should be in the mix for the three votes often. The Dockers are also set to win a few more games this year than they have the past couple, and Serong’s consistency means he’ll rarely be out of the picture when it comes to votes. At double figure odds he looks like a pretty good value bet

Bet on Caleb Serong to win the Brownlow Medal at $13.00 with Bet365 

Noah Anderson started the 2025 season with 36 and 35 touches in his first two games, his hot start mirroring that of his Suns. But while his team has begun to falter a little, their captain has certainly not taken his foot off the gas.

Anderson is averaging over 30 touches per game, and with 35, 36, 39 and 42 in a five-game span between Rounds 11 and 16 (with a couple of goals added into that 42-touch effort for good measure) he will still be in the mix for votes in a couple of their recent losses.

Thus far in his career Anderson has been a solid vote-getter without really challenging to win the award, so has he improved enough this season to put himself in the mix? That question might really come down to how many games the Suns end up winning. It’s always been hard for their players to poll that well given their lack of success (Gary Ablett Jr a notable exception), but an 8-2 start to this season suggested that would change in 2025. Three consecutive losses thereafter put their season in something of a spin, but it still looks likely to be their best season yet. I’d have Anderson a little way behind Serong in this market and the Dockers’ star looks better value to me at similar odds, but he should poll relatively well.

Bet on Noah Anderson to win the Brownlow Medal at $13.00 with Bet365 

Every man, woman and their dog has an opinion on the Brownlow Medal best bets, but while there are many ways to go about it, these are some consistent themes to keep in mind. 

• This is a midfielders’ award – Virtually exclusively, with every player this century to win it playing in the guts at least part-time, and generally all the time. 
• Wins matter – The votes don’t always go to the winning team, but more often than not most of them do, particularly in one-sided games. 
• Factor in teammates who may poll – While some players benefit from being the standout on good teams – think Lachie Neale – others might be competing with other consistent vote-getters on their team – Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca in years’ past a good example. 
• Votes are given by the umpires, not consensus – The more research you do the better, but bear in mind it’s the umpires who do the voting and they might not always be right. Just because a player got three votes according to every site you read and every metric you can imagine, doesn’t mean they will 100% get it from the umps.

According to the betting sites it’s a race in three, and for me Bailey Smith and Nick Daicos are the standouts. Daicos will be very hard to beat as he’s proven in recent years, but Smith has been absolutely dominant for the Cats and in a midfield in which he is clearly the guy, he is my pick.

Further down the pecking order, Serong should be shorter than he is and will undoubtedly poll well, while at even longer odds, it’s hard to deny the form and consistency of the Bulldogs’ Ed Richards. At the time of writing however, Smith is my guy, but the odds will continually wax and wane, so keep an eye on them to ensure you get the best value. 

Below, we’ve listed the last ten Brownlow Medal winners, as well as how many votes they polled, where they play (hint: it’s in the midfield), and how many games their team won.

2024: Patrick Cripps (Carlton), midfielder, 45 votes, 13 wins 
2023: Lachie Neale (Brisbane), midfielder, 31 votes, 17 wins 
2022: Patrick Cripps (Carlton), midfielder, 29 votes, 12 wins 
2021: Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide), midfielder, 36 votes, 17 wins 
2020: Lachie Neale (Brisbane), midfielder, 31 votes, 14 wins (from 17 games in Covid-affected season) 
2019: Nat Fyfe (Fremantle), midfielder, 33 votes, 9 wins 
2018: Tom Mitchell (Hawthorn), midfielder, 28 votes, 15 wins 
2017: Dustin Martin (Richmond), midfielder/forward, 36 votes, 15 wins 
2016: Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong), midfielder/forward, 35 votes, 17 wins 
2015: Nat Fyfe (Fremantle), midfielder, 31 votes, 17 wins