AFL 2025 Finals Week One – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

The AFL finals have officially arrived. It took until the very last game of the season to determine our finalists, but the Suns’ dominant victory over the Bombers saw them snatch the Bulldogs’ spot in the eight and qualify, at long, long last, for their first ever finals series. The first week of finals will kick off with the two Qualifying Finals between the Crows and Magpies, and Cats and Lions, on Thursday and Friday night, before a Saturday double-header will see the seasons of two teams end when the Giants host the Hawks, and then the Dockers host the Suns, in Elimination Finals. With only three games separating 1st from 8th and every team in the finals having won at least 15 games, each of those sides has reason to think they can cause damage in September, and below, you can check out the AFL tips and previews from our resident footy expert at Australianbettingsites for the first week of what will no doubt be a compelling finals series.

Odds provided by Playup

• Date: Thursday, 4th of September
• First bounce: 7.40pm AEST
• Venue: Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
• Broadcast info: Channel 7 (NSW, VIC, QLD, SA), 7Mate (WA), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Crows Odds	Magpies Odds
	$1.60	$2.35
	$1.62	$2.35
	$1.60	$2.34

Match Analysis

It’s been some season for the Crows. After finishing 15th in a disappointing 2024 season, they have enjoyed the biggest jump to top spot in history, adding an extra eight wins to their tally and winning their last nine on the trot to skyrocket the top of the ladder. They haven’t been quite as convincing over the past month, which each of their four wins coming by 14 points or less, two of which were against the Eagles and Kangaroos – though they hardly got out of second gear in those games, and the other two wins were against the Hawks, and their opponent this weekend in the Magpies.

A couple of months ago, it was Collingwood who appeared all but certain to finish on top, but five losses in six games put paid to that idea. They secured a pivotal win over the Demons in their last game to make sure they still finished top four, though they weren’t convincing in that performance either. But all is not as bad as that might make it seem for the Pies. There were a couple of poor efforts in those five aforementioned losses, but most were against fellow finalists and at least a couple of them they really should have won – not least their three-point loss to the Crows.

Adelaide won that game just a fortnight ago by three points, but they were beaten convincingly by the Magpies in virtually every area but the scoreboard. Collingwood won the inside 50 count 71-37 in that game, and though they lost, that game will likely give them plenty of confidence heading into this one.

The Crows are probably deserving favourites given the respective recent records of these two teams and the fact that it will be played in Adelaide, but so was the last matchup between these two. That didn’t stop the Pies’ midfield dominating in a way which, if repeated, will be hard for the Crows to overcome. The Crows are a lethal team at their best, but the Magpies have as much depth across the park and are arguably as well-balanced as any in the league, and with a midfield advantage which was plain to see last time they met, they can come away with an upset victory to secure a Preliminary Final at the MCG.

Expert Tip

Magpies to win by 1-39 @ $2.60 with Bet365

The Pies were dominant last time these two met, despite the final result, and are good value outsiders here.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Magpies to win by 1-24 @ $3.50 with Bet365
• Magpies to win @ $2.35 with PlayUp

• Date: Friday, 5th of September
• First bounce: 7.40pm AEST
• Venue: MCG, Melbourne
• Broadcast info: Channel 7 (NSW, VIC, QLD, SA), 7Mate (WA), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Cats Odds	Lions Odds
	$1.65	$2.25
	$1.70	$2.18
	$1.64	$2.26

Match Analysis

If the Crows are the form team in the comp heading into the finals, the Cats aren’t all that far behind, having won their last six games by an average of just under 58 points to jump into 2nd spot, making it a ridiculous 15 top four finishes in the last 19 years. Despite all those dominant wins, however, it hasn’t exactly been the ideal tune-up for the finals – not one of those six teams they beat is playing finals, and with their last two games against fellow finalists having resulted in defeats, they haven’t actually beaten a top eight side in nearly three months. 

The Lions, in contrast, come into the finals having beaten each of the Hawks, Dockers and Magpies within their last four games. The sole exception, strangely enough, was their only game in the last month against a bottom ten team, and their only loss, against the Swans. Still, it’s safe to say the reigning Premiers are in some pretty lethal form – those wins have been by 27 points against the Pies, 57 against the Dockers (in Perth), and 10 against the Hawks, though with 10 more scoring shots in that game it could have been much more.

The last time these two sides met was a little over two months ago down at GMHBA Stadium, and the Lions pumped them to the tune of 41 points – though again, bad goalkicking played a role, with the Cats only having one less scoring shot in that game.

This is a fascinating game, with both sides boasting great depth and plenty of top-end talent, as evidenced by the eight players they shared in the All-Australian squad of 40 (five to the Lions, three to the Cats). The Cats certainly have the advantage down in Melbourne and it’s for that reason that betting sites have installed them as favourites, but the Lions have travelled well of late and the last time they played at the home of footy, they beat the Magpies easily. They are battle-hardened after a tough month of fixtures, while the Cats are potentially quite disadvantaged by the easy fixture they’ve had over the past six weeks. This should be a fantastic game, but for the second night running, the visiting underdogs can cause an upset.

Expert Tip

Lions to win by 1-39 @ $2.75 with EliteBet

The Lions got it done last time these teams met, and come into the game on the back of some quality wins.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Lions to win @ $2.26 with EliteBet
• Lions to win by 1-24 @ $3.20 with PlayUp

• Date: Saturday, 6th of September
• First bounce: 3.15pm AEST
• Venue: ENGIE Stadium, Sydney
• Broadcast info: Channel 7, Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Giants Odds	Hawks Odds
	$1.77	$2.05
	$1.80	$2.02
	$1.77	$2.04

Match Analysis

The first of our two Elimination Finals will take place at ENGIE Stadium, with the Giants hoping to make it through to the semis for the sixth time in eight seasons. They’ve had another strong season and would be justified in feeling aggrieved at missing the top four despite winning 16 games, but particularly given their form over the past couple of months there is no reason they can’t do plenty of damage from 5th spot. They were pummelled by the Bulldogs in a really poor performance around a month ago, but that is the only blip in their last ten games, a period during which they have gone four from four against fellow finalists.

The Hawks entered the year as one of the Premiership favourites after their incredible end to last season, but while they’ve dipped in the estimations of most and needed every one of their victories to play finals, 15 wins is still a very solid number for a relatively young team. They are also battle-hardened after a tough last month in which they’ve played three of the top four teams, beating two of them and going close against the Lions in Round 24.

These two sides have met just once this year and it was way back in March, when the Hawks held off the visiting Giants by 12 points. But this time around, the Giants will be on their own home deck, and while they don’t exactly have a voracious fanbase to cheer them on, an 8-3 record at home this year suggests that they are still fairly difficult to beat up there.

The Hawks are a talented team with plenty of very good players spread across the park, but the top-end talent of the Giants is just about as good as any – and it will be boosted even further on Saturday with the potential return from injury of Josh Kelly, Jesse Hogan, Jake Stringer, Jack Buckley and Stephen Coniglio – a pretty handy quintet to have on the ‘ins’ list. With guys like Tom Green, Sam Taylor, Lachie Whitfield and Toby Greene also running around, the Giants are capable of doing some serious damage in September, and can make it through to the final six with a strong win at home to end the Hawks’ season.

Expert Tip

Giants -3.5 @ $1.95 with Bet365

The Giants are going to be tough to boot from September, and at home this line looks too short.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Giants 25+ @ $3.25 with PlayUp
• Giants 16+ @ $2.55 with PlayUp

• Date: Saturday, 6th of September
• First bounce: 7.35pm AEST
• Venue: Optus Stadium, Perth
• Broadcast info: Channel 7, Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Dockers Odds	Suns Odds
	$1.53	$2.50
	$1.52	$2.55
	$1.53	$2.50

Match Analysis

Neither the Dockers nor the Suns is exactly synonymous with success, but on Saturday night one of them will advance through to a semi-final. A few days ago the Dockers didn’t look likely to be here, with what many expected to be a second consecutive loss on the eve of the finals seemingly set to see them just miss out for the second year running. But they were fantastic in a do-or-die clash against the Bulldogs, leading from pillar to post to win on the road by 15 points and secure their finals spot – a well-deserved one after winning 16 games.

The Suns, meanwhile, left things about as late as humanly possible to finally make it through to their first finals series. They appeared destined to do so for most of the year, but after consecutive losses to the Power and then Giants in Rounds 23 and 24, they still needed one more win to get there. Fortunately, they still had their rescheduled Opening Round clash against the Bombers up their sleeve, and three days after the final round of the year ended, they won their own last game of the home and away season by a lazy 95 points to jump from 9th to 7th and, in their 15th season, finally make it to September.

In the past ten seasons, these two teams have exactly one finals appearance to their names combined, so unlike a few of their fellow finalists neither is exactly brimming with experience. The Suns, in particular, will no doubt feel plenty of pressure after such a long wait for their first finals appearance, though given the Dockers have been there or thereabouts for a few years the weight of expectation on their collective shoulders is no doubt even heavier.

The last home game the Dockers played was an unmitigated disaster, as they put their finals hopes in jeopardy by losing by 57 points to the Lions, but prior to that they had won six in a row at Optus Stadium, while they’ve also beaten Suns the solitary time they played this year, and that was on the Gold Coast. The midfield battle between a couple of star trios – Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw vs Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell – will be fascinating viewing, and it will likely be hard for any team to gain a significant advantage in that area of the field. An underrated feature of the Dockers, however, is their multi-dimensional forward line, and with enough footy getting down there and the weight of the crowd behind them, they should be able to boot a winning score and end the Suns’ inaugural finals series just as soon as it began.

Expert Tip

Dockers -10.5 @ $1.90 with PlayUp

On their home turf and against a team which has never played finals, the Dockers should be too strong.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Dockers 16+ @ $2.08 with PlayUp
• Under 168.5 total match points @ $1.90 with Bet365

• Magpies to win @ $2.35 with PlayUp – The Crows might have won last time these two sides met, but the Magpies dominated that game and should have continued what has been an incredible run against this side. Prior to it, the Pies had won 10 consecutive games against the Crows, with six of those coming at Adelaide Oval.
• Lions to win @ $2.26 with EliteBet – The Cats’ recent fixture is certainly no fault of their own and they couldn’t have done much more than they have over the last few weeks, but this will be their toughest test in many weeks, and their recent games against top teams they have failed. What’s more, the Lions also have the edge over the Cats in the past few years, winning their last three – including two in Victoria.
• Dockers -10.5 @ $1.90 with PlayUp – The trip to Perth is a long one for the Suns, who have unsurprisingly struggled against the Dockers there, winning just once in their seven attempts. Those early defeats are obviously not particularly relevant, but even more recently when they’ve been a competitive team they’ve failed to get within 20 points of Freo at home.

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