AFL 2025 Grand Final Tips & Predictions – Latest Odds & Best Bets

Along with the Hawks, the Cats and the Lions have been the two most successful teams this century, each having won four Premierships in that time. This Saturday, one of them will win a fifth. Both won their way through to the Big Dance with impressive five-goal wins on Preliminary Final weekend, though the Cats looked particularly slick and will enter the game as 12.5-point favourites with most betting sites on the back of eight consecutive wins. But is that too big of a big handicap against the reigning Premiers? We’ll know by around 5pm on Saturday, and in the meantime you can check out how our resident footy expert at Australianbettingsites thinks the game will unfold with his final group of weekly AFL tips for the season.

• Date: Saturday, 27th of September
• First bounce: 2.30pm AEST
• Venue: MCG, Melbourne
• Broadcast info: Channel 7, Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Cats Odds	Lions Odds
	$1.52	$2.55
	$1.50	$2.60
	$1.50	$2.60

Match Analysis

It’s been an incredibly close season in the AFL and there are plenty of teams good enough to play in a Grand Final, but few would argue that these two teams aren’t right up there with the most deserving. The Cats have been fantastic all year and have taken it to another level in the finals, while the Lions, despite not playing at their best for large periods of the season, stormed into the top four with a bunch of wins over fellow finalists and have been excellent over the past fortnight.

The Cats appear to have rid themselves of the Preliminary Final hoodoo which had plagued them for some years – seeing them lose four out of four of them between 2013 and 2019 – with last week’s victory sending them into a third Grand Final in the past six years. In their last one, of course, they absolutely belted the Swans, though it’s hard to see them doing the same to the Lions this year – even if they did just a couple of weeks ago.

But while Brisbane will provide a stern test, it’s easy to see why the Cats are favourites on the betting apps. They haven’t lost in over two months, and while a number of those were late-season victories against teams that didn’t make the top eight, they’ve well and truly demonstrated that they can do it against anyone since the finals began. After thumping the Lions in the Qualifying Final, they looked incredibly slick against the Hawks last week, leading throughout en route to a 30-point win. They are as well-drilled as anyone in the league, and have X-factors all across the park – not least the ageless Patrick Dangerfield, who was a dominant best on ground with 31 touches and 3 goals last week.

The Lions, meanwhile, enter their second consecutive Grand Final (and fourth year in a row in which they’ve made at least the prelim) after a really strong performance against the Magpies. Like the Cats they are solid all over the park, though the particular strength of their midfield was on full show in last week’s Preliminary Final even in the absence of Lachie Neale. In Hugh McCluggage, Will Ashcroft and Josh Dunkley they have a strong and versatile trio of mids, one which the Cats will have their hands full containing.

The aforementioned Lachie Neale is up against the clock to play after injuring his calf against the Cats in the Qualifying Final, but if he does play he surely won’t be at 100%. But the Cats have injury issues of their own, too, with a Tom Stewart concussion last week ruling their star defender out of the game as well.

These two teams have played twice this year and neither game has been close, each winning by around 40 points against the other – Brisbane winning in Round 15 and the Cats, of course, just a couple of weeks ago. This time around, hopefully those two results average themselves out. As it always does, the midfield battle will go a long way to deciding this game, particularly given the invariably contested nature of a Grand Final. Both teams are strong defensively, and while they’ve served them well, the Lions’ young key forward pairing of Logan Morris and Ty Gallop will have their work cut out for them on the biggest of stages.

Despite neither game between these two sides this year being close, I’m backing this one to go down to the wire. Each team has plenty of experience on the big stage and should be able to avoid being overawed by the situation, leading hopefully to a skilful affair between two very good sides. But while both would be a worthy Premier, it’s hard to ignore how impressive the Cats were last week. In a fiercely contested and highly entertaining game, I’m backing them to sneak over the line and become the most successful team of the century in the process.

Expert Tip

Cats to win by 1-39 @ $2.20 with PlayUp

I think this one goes down to the wire, but Geelong can get it done for the second time in four years.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Cats to win by 1-24 @ $3.35 with PlayUp
• Hugh McCluggage to have 25+ disposals @ $2.50 with PlayUp

• Cats to win by 1-39 @ $2.20 with PlayUp – The Cats deserve their favouritism based on how good they were last week and the dominance they displayed against the Lions three weeks ago, but their odds are a little short for me to win outright. But in what should be a tight game, the better than even money which is on offer for them to win by under 40 points looks like the way too go.
• Cats to win by 1-24 @ $3.35 with PlayUp – If you’re after a little more value, this market is certainly worth consideration. Interestingly there have only been two Grand Finals decided by under five goals in the last eight years, but it’s very easy to see this one going right down to the wire.

Same Game Multi Tip – Cats vs Lions