AFL 2025 Preliminary Finals Tips & Predictions – Latest Odds & Best Bets

We weren’t exactly treated to the most enthralling of semi-final weekends, but victories to the Hawks and Lions have set-up a pair of mouth-watering prelims kicking off on Friday night. Hawthorn and Geelong will rekindle one of the best rivalries of the century to kick things off on Friday night, before Saturday evening will play host to a repeat of the 2023 Grand Final between the Magpies and Lions, which was one of the best in recent memory. It’s hard to imagine at least one, if not both, of these matchups producing a game to remember. Below, you can check out which two teams our resident footy expert at Australianbettingsites thinks will advance through to the 2025 Grand Final.

• Date: Friday, 19th of September
• First bounce: 7.40pm AEST
• Venue: MCG, Melbourne
• Broadcast info: Channel 7 (NSW, VIC, QLD, SA), 7Mate (WA), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Cats Odds	Hawks Odds
	$1.55	$2.45
	$1.58	$2.40
	$1.56	$2.42

Match Analysis

It was 17 years ago that the Hawks upset the Cats in the 2008 Grand Final, officially kick-starting the Kennett curse. The curse was so named after Hawthorn president Jeff Kennett publicly declared his team had a superior ‘psychological drive’ to their opponents from down the Princess Highway, comments which led Geelong players to privately vow never to lose to Hawthorn again. A bold and obviously entirely unrealistic pact, but they ended up doing a pretty good job of it. The Cats went on to win their next 11 games against the Hawks, with all but two of them coming by ten points or less and often in incredible circumstances.

While the rivalry has dwindled somewhat since then, with the Cats continuing to compete for flags and the Hawks struggling, the Easter Monday clash which they annually contest has still thrown up plenty of tight finishes. Geelong has unsurprisingly had the edge in recent years, winning five of the last six Easter Monday games, but the gap has clearly closed over the past couple of seasons and when the two met earlier this year, Geelong won by just seven points in one of the better games of the home and away season.

They will deservedly head into this game as favourites with Aussie betting sites, but not by a huge margin. Of course, the Cats have enjoyed a week off following their Qualifying Final win over the Lions, but it was the way in which they won that game more than the fact that it earned them a week off which should give them so much confidence heading into this one. They were dominant against the reigning Premiers, with the comfortable 38-point final margin flattering the Lions. If they play like that it’s hard to see anyone beating them, but their opponents this week have been pretty impressive themselves over the past fortnight.

After knocking off the Giants in a topsy-turvy Elimination Final clash, the Hawks were excellent against the Crows last week, leading the Crows from pillar to post and ultimately winning by 34 points. Jai Newcombe continued an unbelievable finals run, ending the game as the highest rated player on the ground for the fourth time in his four finals appearance.

He will have a huge role to play against the likes of Max Holmes and Bailey Smith in the middle, particularly given the strength of the Cats’ forward line – enough delivery to the likes of Jeremy Cameron, Patrick Dangerfield and co and with smalls like Gryan Miers and Brad Close running around, and they will kick plenty of goals, regardless of how capable Hawthorn’s forward line might be.

Both teams are strong across the ground, but the area in which there is a substantial difference is experience. The Cats have turned over their list on the run in recent years but have remained right up the pointy end of the ladder, are full of experience and perhaps the most well-drilled team in the league. The Hawks, meanwhile, have a lot of young players without much finals experience. They’re at their best when playing with energy, zinging the ball around quickly and with creativity, and that will invariably be a more difficult task against a team as disciplined defensively as the Cats. If the Easter Monday game earlier in the year is anything to go by, this should be a fantastic game, but the more experienced Cats might be able to outmuscle their younger opposition over the course of 120 minutes.

Expert Tip

Cats to win by 1-39 @ $2.30 with EliteBet

The Cats deserve to be favourites, but it’s hard to see them beating the Hawks by all that much and the value for a close Geelong win with EliteBet makes this one of the better AFL tips of the week.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Over 166.5 total match points @ $1.88 with PlayUp
• Bailey Smith to record 30+ touches @ $2.15 with Bet365

• Date: Saturday, 20th of September
• First bounce: 5.15pm AEST
• Venue: MCG, Melbourne
• Broadcast info: Channel 7, Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Cats Odds	Hawks Odds
	$1.70	$2.15
	$1.71	$2.15
	$1.70	$2.14

Match Analysis

By Saturday night, either the Magpies or Lions will have locked in an opportunity to win their second Grand Final in three years. For Collingwood, the 2025 season has been an impressive bounce back after missing the finals last year following their 2023 Grand Final victory. Although they entered the finals on the back of five losses in six games – a run which nearly sent them from top spot to outside the top four – they could easily have won a number of those games and, in their Qualifying Final against the Crows, showed that they are still capable of beating any team in the league on their day.

The Lions have not been as impressive throughout the course of the year, and ended the home and away season with a percentage of just 114.2% - the second worst in the top eight. But as good teams do, they consistently found a way to win despite rarely dominating, earning a spot in the top four courtesy of a really strong last month in what was a difficult fixture. Unfortunately that form didn’t translate to their Qualifying Final against the Cats, but they returned to something resembling their best against the Suns last week, dominating their less experienced opposition to earn a spot in their fourth consecutive Preliminary Final.

Which leads us to this; a repeat of one of the best Grand Finals we’ve seen in a long time. The 2023 Big Dance was an exhibition in high-quality footy; tightly contested throughout, a number of brilliant goals particularly in the first half, and plenty of terrific individual performances. The end result, of course, was a Magpies win by under a goal; something for which the Lions atoned last year with their first flag in more than 20 years. If this game delivers even a fraction of the entertainment that 2023 Grand Final did, it will be one to remember.

Following that Grand Final, the Magpies won the next three games between the two, but the last time they met just a few weeks ago the Lions were far too good, winning by 27 points – and at the MCG no less. They’ve shown an ability, particularly of late, to play at their best against the best teams in the league, and they’ll need to harness every bit of that in front of what will be a very one-sided and very vocal crowd at the MCG.

The Lions are brimming with talent particularly in the midfield, and though they are substantially weakened by Lachie Neale’s absence, have plenty of very good players to fill the void – their starting mids of Hugh McCluggage, Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft still an elite trio. The Magpies, meanwhile, are arguably the most well-balanced and deepest team in the league, and have been made even more dangerous over the last couple of weeks with the return to form of Jordan de Goey.

This will be the second time in as many days that the MCG will be filled with 90,000+ rabid fans, and while there will no doubt be a healthy contingent of Lions supporters there, black and white will fill the bulk of the stadium. But Brisbane have perennially been involved deep in September over recent years, and are unlikely to be overawed by the environment. Hopefully, we get a game resembling the 2023 Grand Final, but in a thrilling game, I’m backing the Lions to sneak over the line in a thriller to make the last day in September for the third straight year.

Expert Tip

Lions to win @ $2.15 with PlayUp

It’s very easy to see this one going down to the wire, but at better than even money, I like the Lions to win this one.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Lions to win by 1-39 @ $2.65 with PlayUp
• Lions to win by 1-24 @ $3.65 with PlayUp

• Cats to win by 1-39 @ $2.00 with Bet365 – The Cats have the experience to get the job done against the Hawks and have had an extra week to prepare, but the Hawks’ are a dangerous team when their tail is up and should be able to give their more highly fancied opponents a scare.
• Lions to win @ $2.15 with PlayUp – The Lions have a mighty task ahead of them, heading into a hostile MCG environment against a very good team, but they are not a bad side themselves. They’ve been able to rise to the occasion against very capable opposition when they’ve needed it most many times this year, and as the underdog with the betting apps look like good value to cause an upset and advance through to the Grand Final.

Same Game Multi Tip – Cats vs Hawks