AFL 2025 Season Winner Betting Preview – Odds, Tips & Predictions

It might have taken until after the final round to determine who would be playing finals footy this year, with the Suns’ rescheduled game taking place the Wednesday following Round 24, but the final eight were finally locked in that evening, and each of them have reason to believe they can do damage in September. As always it’s the top four in the box seat and they are entered the finals as the firm favourites in the AFL Premiership betting odds, but there are at least a couple of very dangerous teams that finished a little further down the ladder. Below, we take a look at the chances of all the contenders to try to find some value in this market.

As the below AFL Premiership betting market shows, there is a big gap between the top four and the rest entering the finals, but expect plenty of fluctuations throughout the course of the finals. Also notable is that new betting site EliteBet is offering the best value for many teams out of the below trio, so keep an eye on their odds.

It’s become just about a fait accompli that the Cats will be right up there in the Premiership conversation entering the finals, with this, incredibly, the 15th time in 19 seasons that they’ve finished in the top four. Courtesy of six consecutive wins to round out the regular season, many by big margins, they made their way to second and ended the year with the best percentage in the league.

Unfortunately, while their form has been excellent, they haven’t exactly had the ideal tune-up for the highly contested, high-quality footy they’ll play in September, with all those six teams they’ve beaten finishing outside the top eight. That’s not their fault, though their last couple of games against fellow finalists haven’t been great. Still, the Cats are clearly good enough to beat anyone on their day and having earned a home Qualifying Final are well-placed to go a long way. They’re as good a chance as anyone, though at even money in the Grand Final betting market and short-ish odds to win it all, I wouldn’t be backing them.

Bet on the Cats to win the Premiership @ $3.75 with Elitebet

The reigning Premiers haven’t been at their absolute best for a lot of the season, but as good teams do they have still found ways to win and ultimately crept into 3rd place with an excellent final month, despite possessing the second worst percentage in the top eight. And in stark contrast to the Cats, the Lions could hardly have had a better lead-up to September.

In the last month of the home and away season, they faced each of the Magpies, Dockers and Hawks, and beat them all reasonably comfortably. As they showed in those games, they’ve got an extra gear they can go to when they need to, and the experience and confidence gained from finally breaking through last year will hold them in good stead. They might not have earned a home Qualifying Final, but the Lions are going to be a very tough team to beat this September.

Bet on the Lions to win the AFL Premiership at $4.30 with EliteBet

The Crows have enjoyed the biggest leap to top spot in history this year, climbing all the way from 15th last year to finish the 2025 home and away season a game clear, with 18 wins and a percentage of nearly 140%. They’ve proved capable of putting up big scores since the beginning of the season, with their three-pronged attack posing a major problem for opposing defences.

Jordan Dawson has led from the front in the midfield, though it’s safe to say they don’t have the depth of talent in there as some of their fellow finalists and whether they can hold their own against the best in the business in the trenches will be one of the biggest questions they need to answer. They have done so plenty of times against good teams this year, though – despite winning the game – the 71-37 inside-50 count in their recent clash with the Pies was a prime example of those concerns. The Crows are a very dangerous team, but it’s also their first foray into September in some time and while they’re more than capable of going all the way, they wouldn’t be my top choice.

Bet on the Crows to win the AFL Premiership @ $5.00 with EliteBet 

A couple of months ago, it would have been hard to imagine the Pies entering the finals as only the fourth favourite to win it all. They sat multiple games clear on top of the ladder, but one loss led to another led to another, and a run of just one win in six games saw them tumble out of top spot and very nearly lose their grasp on the top four.

But all is not lost. Many of those defeats came against very good teams and they should have won at least a couple of them. Should have clearly won’t be good enough in September, but the capacity to beat anyone on their day remains and it was only recently that they essentially dominated the Crows in Adelaide, only losing despite the incredible weight of forward pressure they put on. The Pies are as well-balanced as any team in the league and don’t have a weak link on the field; write them off at your own peril, and having ballooned out in the AFL Premiership betting a little, they look like good value.

Bet on the Magpies to win the AFL Premiership at $6.50 with Unibet

There were some very lofty expectations placed on the Hawks this season after their incredible 2024, and while their Premiership hopes have been dented by their inability to make top four, 15 wins and a percentage of 120% is still solid going for a contending team still in its relative infancy.

In such a competitive year, that was only enough to see them finish 8th, but like most teams outside the top four they are still capable of being very dangerous. The Hawks have drawn a tough Elimination Final against the Giants in Sydney and could very easily be booted from the finals by the end of the first weekend, but equally that game is well within their grasp and so is just about any matchup they could face in the finals. At longer odds they aren’t the worst bet, though they might still be a year or two away and there are a couple of other value teams I prefer.

Bet on the Hawks to win the AFL Premiership @ $16.00 with Unibet

The Giants have had a funny year. No one would doubt their absolutely elite top-end talent, but at times through the middle stages of 2025 they were certainly not playing at the level they are capable. Nine wins in their last ten games, however, assured them of a spot in the finals and very nearly got them into the top four, and while plenty of those wins were soft ones against poor opposition and the solitary loss was a shocker against the Dogs, they did also beat the Lions, Cats, and Suns twice in that time.

With names like Sam Taylor, Lachie Whitfield, Tom Green, Jesse Hogan and Toby Greene running around, to name just a few, this team is as talented as any and has shown an ability to beat any team in the league on their day. They will have to go the long way round having missed the top four and are certainly no guarantee to even make it through their Elimination Final, but there won’t be a single game this finals series which they are not capable of winning. If a team is to win it from outside the top four, they’re my pick, and at over $20 with some betting sites they look tempting.

Bet on the Giants to win the AFL Premiership at $21.00 with EliteBet 

The Dockers are consistently overlooked by the AFL community, and perhaps that’s fair enough given they’ve been there or thereabouts for a few years now but have only managed one finals win. But make no mistake; this is a very good team. The offensive deficiencies which long plagued them under Justin Longmuir have been largely rectified, and their forward line is now a multi-pronged, versatile strength.

After their miserable Round 23 effort against the Lions, the Dockers looked destined to slip out of the eight on the eve of the finals for the second year running, but they were brilliant in their do-or-die clash against the Dogs in Melbourne, securing their 16th win and a home Elimination Final as a result. Like every team, they’re not guaranteed of winning their first final, but they do have a favourable match-up in Perth against the Suns, and if they get through that they won’t make life easy for anyone thereafter. At similar odds on the betting apps I prefer the Giants, but the Dockers are a close second when it comes to value outside the top four.

Bet on the Dockers to win the Premiership @ $23.00 with EliteBet

After 15 years it felt like the Suns might literally never play finals, but lo and behold, here we are. They took their time securing it, with consecutive losses in Rounds 23 and 24 meaning they had to win their rescheduled game against the Bombers to finally break their finals hoodoo, but they rose to the occasion against a hapless opponent to win by 95 points and jump into 7th spot.

So – now to the finals themselves. Clearly, this team is not exactly swimming in September experience, aside from their coach and a couple of recent recruits from other teams. That doesn’t necessarily matter, but of all the teams in the finals they are certainly the least likely to make it out of the first week, and if they do, to go much beyond that. The Suns are a good team – finally – but they are not a great one, and they are the least likely to spring a surprise in the finals.

Bet on the Suns to win the Premiership @ $51.00 with EliteBet

Essentially, the AFL Premiership betting market is split into two groups entering the finals; the top four are all comfortably single figures, while the rest are pushing $20 or more. After the Lions did it last year, there have now been two teams in the past decade to win the long way round, so it’s not out of the realms of possibility, particularly with the quality of those teams this year. Of those outside the eight, the Giants are the best value to me, boasting a best 22 more than capable of going all the way.

But far more often than not, the Premier comes from within the top four, and there are a couple of those that stand out to me. The Lions have a terrific recent record against other good teams and are going to be really tough to beat, but for me the Magpies are the best value; they were the best team in the league by a mile just a couple of months ago, and with their recent losses having seen their Premiership betting odds balloon out, but still hanging onto the double chance, they’re my best bet.

Picking the Premier this year feels like a bit of a lottery with so many teams in the mix, but while there is no one rule to land a winner, there are a few key tips to keep in mind.

• Top four, top four, top four: We all know how hard it is to win the flag from outside the top four. The Lions did it last year and the Dogs in 2016, but they’re the only teams since the finals format changed in 2000 to achieve the feat. 
  
• Don’t always believe the hype, because things change: Every year, there seems to be discussions a few weeks into the season – is the top eight already decided? Can anyone beat team x? The answers are always a resounding ‘No’, and ‘Yes’, in that order. It’s a long season and things always change, and if a team looks unbeatable in Round 12 (looking at you, 2024 Sydney), that does not mean you should take their very short odds to win the flag. 
  
• Finals experience: Finals footy is a whole different ball game. Having big, developed bodies and players who have been there before often becomes pivotal when the whips are cracking in September.