AFL 2025 Season Winner Betting Preview – Odds, Tips & Predictions

The AFL Premiership season is now well and truly into its second half, but there are still plenty of teams that would consider themselves genuine flag contenders. The Magpies are clearly leading the charge, but there is a cluster of six teams atop the AFL Premiership betting odds, and three more not all that far behind them. That top nine has broken away from the rest of the league, and each of those teams has put in individual performances this season that look like those of a Premiership calibre team. The question is, who can do it on the biggest stage, against the best teams? Below, we take a look at the chances of all the contenders to try to find some value in this market.

The below odds show Collingwood as the clear and outright Premiership favourites, but the gap between them and the rest is not all that significant, and with one or two unfavourable results favouritism could easily change hands.

As you can see below, it’s a pretty one-sided (or two-sided, I suppose) Coleman Medal betting market at the minute, with the Eagles the short-priced favourites and the Tigers way ahead in second.

The Magpies were dreadful in Round 1 against the Giants, but since then have hardly stepped a foot wrong. The 2023 Premiers would go on to win 13 of their next 14 games, establishing themselves clearly on top of the ladder in the process. With a two-and-a-half game lead over second with just a couple of months left in the home and away season, top spot already looks close to assured and with it, a potential path to Premiership success without having to leave the comfort of the MCG.

Indicative of the strong position in which they find themselves, the Magpies are at even money in the AFL Grand Final betting market. They are incredibly well-rounded, with no obvious weaknesses and the potential to get even better when Jordan de Goey returns. It’s a very even competition and there are plenty of teams more than capable of beating Collingwood on their day, but at this point in the season they well and truly deserve their favouritism.

Bet on the Magpies to win the AFL Premiership at $3.90 with EliteBet

Death, taxes and the Cats competing for the Premiership – three of life’s certainties. Despite the continual turnover of their list, Geelong have managed to remain in contention over the past few years and now have a list that is a well-balanced combination of young talent, veteran stars still performing at a high-level, and a few players in the middle. Their start to the season wasn’t outstanding and nine weeks in they found themselves at 5-4, but five wins in a row put them in a great spot to compete for a spot in the top four.

The Cats have stars all over the park. Bailey Smith has been a better pick-up than anyone could have imagined, Jeremy Cameron and the rejuvenated Patrick Dangerfield are wreaking havoc up forward, while their ever-reliable backline let by the likes of Tom Stewart continues to prove tough to penetrate. The Cats’ problem has often been an inability to make it past Preliminary Final weekend, but there is more coincidence to that than many would have you believe. If they finish top four, they’re a chance. 

Bet on the Cats to win the Premiership @ $5.50 with PlayUp

It’s always the sign of a good side to be able to play below their best and still win, and that has been the modus operandi of the Lions this season. The reigning Premiers, likely by their own admission, have not been firing on all cylinders for much of 2025, but despite that, 15 rounds into the season they found themselves sitting in second spot.

That position is precarious given the state of the ladder, and they could still very easily miss the top four, particularly given their tough run home. If they can manage to hang onto a spot in the top two, however, they should be shorter than they are, because they will be red-hot favourites to win two games at the Gabba to make another Grand Final. But their fixture is really not easy. The ball is in their court, but it’s easy to see them slipping out of the top two and potentially the top four over the coming weeks, and if they do they’ll find it hard to make it through to the last day in September for the third year running.

Bet on the Lions to win the AFL Premiership at $6.00 with EliteBet

Make no mistake; the Doggies are a really good team. In fairness, they were last season too, and for the back half of the season and then some, they found the consistency which had been so notably absent for so long. This year, they have taken another step forwards. Despite the loss of Bailey Smith, they have an unbelievable midfield, and with Rory Lobb having now established himself as an elite key defender and Sam Darcy already the best forward in the league along with Jeremy Cameron, they’re well stocked at either end of the field as well.

When they are on, the Bulldogs are as good to watch as any team in the league, slicing the ball through opposing defences like a hot knife through butter. They’ve found themselves on the edge of the eight for most of the season, but they have a lot of very winnable games in the run home. It would be no surprise to see them give the top four a shake, but wherever they finish they will be a super dangerous finals team and present as some pretty good value in this market. 

Bet on the Bulldogs to win the Premiership @ $7.50 with PlayUp 

The Crows wasted no time proving that last year’s failure was an anomaly this season, flying out of the blocks with a couple of huge wins, and they’ve hardly looked back. Behind the Bulldogs, the Crows have been the most potent offensive team in the league – no surprise given their elite ball movement and three-pronged forward attack – but where they’ve really improved is defensively.

They’ve conceded the least points in the league behind Collingwood at the time of writing, and that combination means they boast the best percentage in the league – always a good sign. This Crows outfit in its current form does not have a great deal of finals experience so it will be interesting to see how they deal with the September pressure, but they do have a good combination of youth and veteran talent. Their best is as good as just about anybody’s, and at $10 with some bookies they could be value. 

Bet on the Crows to win the AFL Premiership @ $10 with Unibet 

The Hawks entered the season shouldering some lofty expectations after a brilliant 2024; expectations which were always going to be hard to live up to. At 7-5 there were certainly some raised eyebrows in the football community, but three excellent wins in a row to take them to 10-5 put them in a really good position from which to launch at a potential top four spot.

If Generation Z was a football team it would be the Hawks, but while the post-game selfies and on-field antics of Jack Ginnivan and co might ruffle some feathers, they couldn’t care less – nor should they. This is an exciting team with a bright future, and one already capable of causing damage. But while they should be in the mix for years to come, 2025 might just be a season too early for them.  

Bet on the Hawks to win the AFL Premiership @ $10 with Unibet 

According to the betting sites, the Giants are the most likely team out of the top nine at the time of writing to miss out on the finals. At the same time, however, they’re well clear of a couple of those teams in the AFL Premiership betting. A relatively meek percentage is one of the main reasons for the uncertainty about their ability to make finals; a percentage which means they’ll likely have to win a game more than the teams around them to make it.

But they don’t have the toughest fixture, and if they do make their way back into the top 8 they’re capable of causing damage. There is so much talent running around this team, from Tom Green in the middle, to Lachie Whitfield, Lachie Ash and Sam Taylor down back, and Jesse Hogan and Toby Greene up forward. They haven’t looked great at times this year, but wins over Brisbane and then the Gold Coast in Rounds 15 and 16 could be the catalyst they need to find their best form, and if it is they are great value to win the flag at long odds.

Bet on the Giants to win the AFL Premiership at $16.00 with EliteBet 

The Dockers never get all that much love from the AFL community, but I’m here to give them some. Granted they’ve never really threatened for a flag under Justin Longmuir, but they have long been one of the strongest defensive teams in the league, and their ball movement and offensive potency has gradually improved over the last couple of years.

The addition of Shai Bolton has certainly helped, but him aside they have plenty of great forwards led by Josh Treacy, while an excellent midfield led by Caleb Serong, Andrew Brayshaw and Luke Jackson means they get plenty of supply. After falling to 4-5, the Dockers won six in a row to get their season right back on track, but can they maintain it? I don’t think the Dockers will win the Premiership – there are better teams than them out there – but it’s not completely out of the realms of possibility and their odds of $21 are too long for mine.

Bet on the Dockers to win the Premiership @ $21.00 with PlayUp 

Clearly there are plenty of teams in the Premiership mix, and with so little separating so many teams on the ladder there will no doubt be plenty of movement in this market in the run to the finals. With so many teams capable of winning, I’d advise staying away from the favourites right at the minute – as good as the Pies and Cats look, there are a host of teams good enough to beat them and who present as better value.

All season long, my standout has been the Dogs. Their best is absolutely electric, and with their key stocks finally set, the brilliance of their midfield is no longer being wasted. If they can work their way into the top four, don’t be surprised to see them come in to under $5. As a value pick, the Dockers look too long at over $20, and even if they’ll be hard-pressed to go all the way they could easily shorten significantly with a couple more wins. But for the most realistic, best-value team in this market, the Dogs look hard to beat.

Picking the Premier this year feels like a bit of a lottery with so many teams in the mix, but while there is no one rule to land a winner, there are a few key tips to keep in mind.

• Top four, top four, top four: We all know how hard it is to win the flag from outside the top four. The Lions did it last year and the Dogs in 2016, but they’re the only teams since the finals format changed in 2000 to achieve the feat. 
  
• Don’t always believe the hype, because things change: Every year, there seems to be discussions a few weeks into the season – is the top eight already decided? Can anyone beat team x? The answers are always a resounding ‘No’, and ‘Yes’, in that order. It’s a long season and things always change, and if a team looks unbeatable in Round 12 (looking at you, 2024 Sydney), that does not mean you should take their very short odds to win the flag. 
  
• Finals experience: Finals footy is a whole different ball game. Having big, developed bodies and players who have been there before often becomes pivotal when the whips are cracking in September.