AFL 2025 Season Winner Betting Preview – Odds, Tips & Predictions

After more than six months, 215 games, hurricane-related game postponements, another healthy dose of suspension-related controversies, goals after the siren, a rogue Brownlow medallist and all sorts of other drama, we officially have our two Grand Finalists. The Cats and the Lions have been among the most successful teams this century and have each won flags in the last three years, and this Saturday one of them will become the first team in the 2000s to win five Premierships. The Cats enter the game as favourites in the AFL Premiership betting odds after a scintillating Preliminary Finals performance, but the Lions are not exactly a bad team themselves. There have been plenty of average Grand Finals in recent years, but this one could be one for the ages.

The AFL Premiership betting market has endured plenty of fluctuations throughout the course of the season, but the Cats and Lions have been relatively consistent all year long and now find themselves head-to-head on the last Saturday in September.

Three years after their dominant 2022 Grand Final win over the Swans, the Cats have been as clinical as ever this season, putting together a 17-win season and ending the year with the best percentage in the league. Question marks surrounded their lead into the final, including by yours truly, with their six-game winning streak leading into September all coming against non-finals team, but they’ve proved myself and many others comprehensively wrong with two brilliant performances to advance through to another Grand Final.

The first of those came against their opponent in the Big Dance in the Lions, who they pumped by 38 points in the Qualifying Final – a final margin which flattered the losers – before taking care of the Hawks by 30 points last week. Hawthorn weren’t exactly bad, but the Cats looked as slick as anyone has all year and responded each and every time they were challenged.

They are very well coached, defensively strong and have few weaknesses, and the incredible form of 35-year-old Patrick Dangerfield – who was an absolute battering ram en route to 31 touches and 3 goals last week – has taken this team to another level. Unfortunately they will be without Tom Stewart on Grand Final Day after the star defender was concussed in the Preliminary Final, but while his absence will sting and whoever comes in for him will objectively not be as good a player, this team is more than capable of collectively compensating for the loss of an individual, regardless of how good that individual might be.

They enter this game as favourites for very good reason. They haven’t lost a game since early in July and have been the dominant team in the finals, having knocked off two very good teams with relative ease. Having said that, they are very short given the quality of their opposition. The Lions are the reigning Premiers for a reason and at their best are extremely hard to beat, and the odds betting sites are offering – particularly Unibet, who have them at just $1.47 – are a little short for my liking. I’m backing the Cats to win, but in a tight one, so if you’re going to bet on them I much prefer the 1-39 market, but when it comes to head-to-head betting, as good as the Cats are, they’re not great value.

Bet on the Cats to win the Premiership @ $1.52 with PlayUp

Teams rarely progress up the ladder in a linear fashion, but the Lions’ last few years have been a notable exception. After three years of top four finishes with just one finals win to show for it, they made their way through to a Preliminary Final in 2022, made the Grand Final but lost the next year, before finally breaking through for their first Premiership since 2003 last season. Now, of course, they’re here again.

The reigning Premiers haven’t had things all their own way this year, but as good teams do they have found a way. They entered the final month of the home and away season outside the top four and with a very tough draw to come, but victories over the Pies, Dockers and Hawks saw them sneak into the top four. The second-lowest percentage in the top eight was indicative of the fact that they have not exactly been dominant this season, but they have consistently found a way to get the points.

Despite all that strong late-season form, however, they were no match for the Cats in their Qualifying Final and were lucky to only lose by 38 points. But don’t let that fool you. This team is still more than capable of competing with anyone, including Geelong – they beat them comfortably, in Geelong no less, less than three months ago, and have put in a couple of their best performances of the year over the last fortnight since that defeat.

The Lions have a great balance of experience and youth, with a talented midfield, very reliable backline, and versatile forward line – punctuated by an extremely young key forward pairing of Logan Morris and Ty Gallop. Importantly, however, most of the youth that will run out on Saturday have experience that belies their years, having played in last year’s Grand Final, so they’ll be familiar with the intensity they can expect. Out of these two teams, the Cats have been better more consistently this year, but the Lions at their best are capable of beating anyone in the league. As mentioned above, I’m expecting a very close game and am backing the Cats to sneak over the line, but as far as head-to-head odds go, the Lions look like better value with Premiership betting odds of over $2.50 with some betting apps.

Bet on the Lions to win the AFL Premiership at $2.60 with EliteBet

In the past eight years, there have been five blowout Grand Finals, another which was decided by 31 points, and a pair of thrillers. I’m expecting this one to add to the latter category. The two games between these sides this year have not been close, with each having taken one apiece, but both come into this game with plenty of big-game experience and in scintillating form, and should put on an extremely good spectacle in front of 100,000 at the MCG and many millions more at home.

The Cats deserve favouritism; they haven’t put a foot wrong for months and have been brilliant since the finals began. But considering the quality of the Lions, they are too short at around $1.50. If you’re betting on margins, I like the Cats to win by 1-39, but if you’re after a pure head-to-head bet on the day, the Lions are offering the best value.

Picking the Premier this year feels like a bit of a lottery with so many teams in the mix, but while there is no one rule to land a winner, there are a few key tips to keep in mind.

• Top four, top four, top four: We all know how hard it is to win the flag from outside the top four. The Lions did it last year and the Dogs in 2016, but they’re the only teams since the finals format changed in 2000 to achieve the feat. 
  
• Don’t always believe the hype, because things change: Every year, there seems to be discussions a few weeks into the season – is the top eight already decided? Can anyone beat team x? The answers are always a resounding ‘No’, and ‘Yes’, in that order. It’s a long season and things always change, and if a team looks unbeatable in Round 12 (looking at you, 2024 Sydney), that does not mean you should take their very short odds to win the flag. 
  
• Finals experience: Finals footy is a whole different ball game. Having big, developed bodies and players who have been there before often becomes pivotal when the whips are cracking in September.