AFL 2025 Round 16 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

The last couple of months of the AFL home and away season are already nearly upon us, and while the Magpies have opened up a handy buffer atop the ladder, competition for spots just below them is heated. Just a solitary game separates the Crows in 4th from the Suns way back in 9th, and there will likely be plenty of movement over the coming weeks as a result. Round 16 kicks off with the Power hosting the Blues on Thursday night before the Swans host the Dogs on Friday in an intriguing start to the weekend, and below you can take a look at my detailed previews and AFL tips for each and every game.

Odds provided by Playup

Date and Time: Thursday 26th of June, 7.30pm AEST

Venue: Adelaide Oval, Adelaide

Broadcast info: Channel Seven (VIC, SA), 7Mate (NSW, QLD, WA), Fox Footy

Head-to-head odds (PlayUp):

Port Adelaide: $1.70

Carlton: $2.15

Line odds (PlayUp):

Port Adelaide -5.5: $1.90

Carlton +5.5: $1.90

Match Preview

Both the Power and the Blues head into this game in desperate need of a win. While they are each only sitting a couple of spots outside the top eight, they are two games and percentage behind the Suns in tenth and are coming into the game coming off disappointing losses last weekend.

For the Power, consecutive wins looked like the start of a much-needed turnaround in form in Ken Hinkley’s last season, but they were comprehensively outplayed against the Swans last weekend. The Blues, meanwhile, had won two on the trot (albeit against fairly meek opposition) before Saturday’s clash against the Roos, but went down by 11 points in a pitiful performance.

Those results piled the pressure onto both of these clubs, and with the loser potentially falling three games and percentage behind 8th spot, this is a must-win. Both teams boast strong midfields, but despite that talent in the guts, the Blues’ haven’t moved the ball forward with any sort of efficiency this season, and Harry McKay’s absence combined with Charlie Curnow’s indifferent form might see them struggle to kick a winning score.

Expert Tip

Port Adelaide to win by 1-39 points @ $2.35 with Bet365

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Port Adelaide to win by 1-24 points @ $3.40 with Bet365
• Under 163.5 total match points @ $1.89 with PlayUp

Date and Time: Friday 27th of June, 7.40pm AEST

Venue: SCG, Sydney

Broadcast info: Channel Seven (NSW, VIC, SA), 7Mate (QLD, WA), Fox Footy

Head-to-head odds (PlayUp):

Sydney: $2.35

Bulldogs: $1.60

Line odds (PlayUp): 

Sydney +8.5: $1.90 

Bulldogs -8.5: $1.90

Match Preview

What a game this should be. The Swans and the Bulldogs are only separated by a couple of spots on the AFL ladder, but the difference between them has been far greater than that this season. Sydney have struggled immensely in their first season under Dean Cox, failing to recapture anything remotely resembling the form that got them into a second Grand Final in two years last season. But the return of Errol Gulden had an immediate impact last weekend, and the improved ball movement he helped create provided ample opportunity for a forward line boosted by the returns of Tom Papley and Joel Amartey.

The Dogs, meanwhile, picked up their second big win in succession, making light work of the Tigers in a 79-point win a week after trouncing the Saints by 72. Incredibly, they just crept into the eight as a result of those wins, but a percentage of 133.4% is more reflective of where they are at – a bonafide Premiership contender.

There is no doubting the Dogs have been the better team this year, but it would be no surprise to see the Swans start to find some form now that their injury list is shortening a little – and particularly with the return of Gulden. The Dogs’ run and carry game style isn’t really suited to the tight confines of the SCG, though a 39-point win there last year suggested they’re not too bothered by it. Sydney is every chance of causing an upset in this game and should be able to keep it close, but the Bulldogs have been really impressive all season and can make it three on the trot.

Expert Tip

Bulldogs to win by 1-39 points @ $2.20 with EliteBet

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Bulldogs to win by 1-24 points @ $3.20 with Bet365
• Sam Darcy to kick 3+ goals @ $2.05 with Bet365

Date and Time: Saturday 28th of June, 1.20pm AEST

Venue: People First Stadium, Gold Coast

Broadcast info: Channel Seven (Queensland), Fox Footy

Head-to-head odds (PlayUp):

Gold Coast: $1.40

Melbourne: $2.95

Line odds (PlayUp):

Gold Coast -17.5: $1.90

Melbourne +17.5: $1.90

Match Preview

It couldn’t happen again, could it? The Suns have probably showed more promise than they ever have in their 15 years in the league this season, but despite a positive start they have again slipped down the ladder as the season has worn on, and last week’s loss to the Giants saw them slip out of the eight for the first time all year.

The Demons, however, will not be particularly happy with where they find themselves either. After working their way back into the season with some solid form, they’ve gone and lost three on the trot. They’ve had a week off to think about things, but with a record of 5-9 it might be all too late for them to turn things around.

This is a game that both teams will be desperate to win, but the Suns enter it as comfortable favourites for good reason. Melbourne has, at times, reminded the footy world that they still have plenty of good players running around, but those occasions have been too few and far between. At a venue at which the home side is typically hard to beat, the Suns should be too good.

Expert Tip

Under 172.5 total match points @ $1.89 with PlayUp

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Suns -17.5 @ $1.90 with EliteBet
• Brayden Fiorini to record 20+ disposals @ $1.87 with Bet365

Date and Time: Saturday 28th of June, 4.15pm AEST

Venue: University of Tasmania Stadium, Launceston

Broadcast info: Fox Footy

Head-to-head odds (PlayUp):

Hawthorn: $1.15

North Melbourne: $5.50

Line odds (PlayUp):

Hawthorn -32.5: $1.90

North Melbourne +32.5: $1.90

Match Preview

A little over a month ago, the pressure was mounting on the Hawks following three consecutive defeats. But impressive victories over first the Western Bulldogs and then the Crows just prior to their bye last weekend righted the ship, taking their record to 9-5. Their percentage could use some work though, but while this might have looked like a good opportunity to boost it a few weeks ago, the Kangaroos have come into some really solid form.

Last weekend’s 11-point win over the Blues might have sent Carlton fans into a panic, but it wasn’t as surprising a result as it might have seemed. The Kangaroos have been playing well for some time now; that win was their third in five games, and aside from a 45-point drubbing at the hands of the Magpies, they haven’t lost by more than nine points in over two months.

The Hawks should be able to get the job done, particularly in Tasmania where they tend to play well. It would be no surprise, however, to see the Kangaroos put up a strong fight. Expect a Hawthorn victory, but we could be in for a closer game than many expect.

Expert Tip

Hawks to win by 1-39 @ $2.15 with Bet365

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Kangaroos +33.5 @ $1.90 with EliteBet
• Nick Larkey to kick 2+ goals @ $2.45 with Bet365

The best bets of the weekend, according to the resident AFL expert at australianbettingsites.net.au.

• Sam Darcy to kick 3+ goals @  $2.05 with Bet365 – In an incredible third season in the league, Sam Darcy has booted 3+ goals in four of his eight games, including 5 and 3 in his two games since returning from injury.
• Saints under 70.5 total match points @ $1.89 with Bet365 – The Dockers have kept teams under this number in five consecutive games, while the Saints only average right around this number over that same period.
• Jamie Elliott 5+ goals @ $5.00 with Bet365 – A bit of value here, with the betting apps offering $5 for Elliott to boot 5 in a game the Magpies should win by a lot. He’s kicked 5 or more in four of his last eight games.

Same Game Multi Tip

Date and Time: Saturday 28th of June, 7.35pm AEST

Venue: Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

Broadcast info: 7Mate (Western Australia), Fox Footy

Head-to-head odds (PlayUp):

Collingwood: $1.02

West Coast: $13.00

Line odds (PlayUp):

Collingwood -59.5: $1.90

West Coast +59.5: $1.90

Match Preview

There are a handful of potentially close games set for this weekend, but this isn’t one of them; in fact it might be the most lopsided match-up possible in the league right now. The Magpies sit a game and a half clear atop the AFL ladder, having won 12 of 13 games since their Opening Round loss to the Giants, and are looking every bit as slick as they did in their 2023 Premiership-winning year.

The Eagles, meanwhile, once again remained firmly glued to the bottom of the ladder. They’ve won just a solitary game all year, and while they have at least been moderately competitive in their past couple, they’re still getting pumped by just about every half-decent team they play.

Perhaps the only thing in the Eagles’ favour is that this game isn’t at the MCG, but even across the city at Marvel Stadium it should be a walk in the park for the Pies. A big line has been set, with new betting sites like EliteBet offering $1.90 for the home team to win by over 10 goals, but even that mark might not be big enough for the Eagles to cover.

Expert Tip

Magpies -60.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Jamie Elliott 5+ goals @ $5.00 with Bet365
• Tom McCarthy to record 25+ disposals @ $1.95 with PlayUp

Date and Time: Sunday 29th of June, 3.20pm AEST

Venue: MCG, Melbourne

Broadcast info: Channel Seven (VIC and SA), 7Mate (NSW and QLD), Fox Footy

Head-to-head odds (PlayUp):

Richmond: $6.25

Adelaide: $1.12

Line odds (PlayUp):

Richmond +37.5: $1.90

Adelaide -37.5: $1.90

Match Preview

The Tigers have shown a lot more than many expected this season and appear to have a bright future ahead of them, but the wheels have started to fall off over the last couple of games. After snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in a really impressive performance against the Giants, they’ve booted just 36 and 56 points in their last two games, last weekend going down by 79 points to the Dogs.

The Crows, meanwhile, had a three-game winning streak snapped last weekend by the Hawks in a gruelling game, ultimately going down 47-44. That was unusual for the second highest-scoring team in the comp, but they won’t likely have as many issues finding the big sticks this Sunday.

The Tigers are more than capable of being competitive with far more highly fancied teams, but this young group appears to already be stumbling towards the end of the season. They were unable to put the clamps on one of the best teams at moving the ball in the comp last weekend, and now they face another one of those in Adelaide. Expect Adelaide’s talented forward line to feast against the young Tigers in this one.

Expert Tip

Crows over 105.5 total match points @ $1.89 with EliteBet

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Ben Keays 2+ goals @ $2.00 with Bet365
• Crows -37.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365

Date and Time: Sunday 29th of June, 5.10pm AEST

Venue: Optus Stadium, Perth

Broadcast info: Channel Seven (WA), Fox Footy

Head-to-head odds (PlayUp):

Fremantle: $1.29

St. Kilda: $3.60

Line odds (PlayUp):

Fremantle -22.5: $1.90

St. Kilda +22.5: $1.90

Match Preview

The last time these two met was less than two months ago, in a Friday night clash that the Dockers would have wanted to erase from memory as soon as possible. They booted just 5.3 in a hapless offensive performance, but since then they have lost a close game to Collingwood and then reeled off five consecutive wins to climb all the way up to 6th place.

The Saints have trended in the opposite direction. That win was as impressive a performance as they have all year, showcasing Ross Lyon’s defensive nous as a coach at its best, but they’ve won just one of six since and have tumbled all the way down to 14th.

It might have been the Dockers who struggled to score last time these sides met, but it’s been the Saints’ offensive game which has been most cause for concern in the two months since. With St. Kilda’s one-paced midfield and limited firepower ahead of the ball, the Dockers’ capable midfield led by Serong and Brayshaw should win the inside battle easily, keeping the Saints to another low score and recording their sixth successive win.

Expert Tip

Saints under 70.5 total match points @ $1.89 with Bet365

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Dockers to win by 1-39 @ $2.00 with PlayUp
• Caleb Serong to record 35+ disposals @ $4.33 with Bet365