AFL 2025 Round 17 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

The bye rounds are officially done and dusted, with Round 17 of the AFL season the first full slate of games in six weeks. It seems likely that there are just nine teams vying for the top eight positions, but with two months still to go in the home and away season there is still time for that to change if teams like the Power, Blues or Swans can go on a run – as unlikely as that might seem right now. Round 17 kicks off with a rare Thursday night appearance from the Kangaroos as they take on the red-hot Bulldogs, before a Friday night double-header begins in front of what will no doubt be a raucous MCG crowd when the Pies take on the Blues. Take a look below at my previews and AFL tips for those games and the rest set to take place over the course of the weekend.

Odds provided by Playup

• Date: Thursday 3rd of July
• First bounce: 7.30pm AEST
• Venue: Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
• Broadcast info: Channel Seven (VIC, SA), 7Mate (NSW, QLD, WA), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Team A Odds	Team B Odds
	$7.00	$1.10
	$8.00	$1.08
	$7.00	$1.10

Match Analysis

After a really competitive couple of months which culminated in three wins from five games, the Roos dished up their worst performance in a long time last weekend, going down by 85 points to the Hawks in Tassie. And it doesn’t get any easier for them in Round 17, as they take centre stage on Thursday night against the in-form Dogs.

The Doggies won their third on the trot last Friday night in one of the more entertaining games of the year, a four-goal effort by the man dubbed ‘mini Bont’, Joel Freijah, in actual Bont’s 250th game. They still find themselves back in 7th, but their best is extremely good and a percentage of 131.5% illustrates their capacity to put teams to the sword.

That doesn’t bode well for North. Expect a far more spirited effort than what they dished up last weekend and if they do bring some more hunger they will make the Dogs work – for a quarter or two. But the superior side will likely get a hold of them at various points of the game, and should be able to put up a big score en route to their fourth straight win.

Expert Tip

Western Bulldogs -42.5 @ $1.90 with PlayUp

The Doggies are capable of doing a lot of damage quickly, particularly against lower teams.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Total match points: Over 180.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365
• Goalscorer: Aaron Naughton to kick 3+ goals @ $2.40 with Bet365

• Date: Friday 4th of July
• First bounce: 7.20pm AEST
• Venue: MCG, Melbourne
• Broadcast info: Channel Seven (VIC, SA), 7Mate (QLD), Fox Footy 

Bookmaker	Team A Odds	Team B Odds
	$4.60	$1.20
	$4.50	$1.21
	$4.50	$1.21

Match Analysis

Regardless of where these two sides are on the ladder, there is never any shortage of motivation when the Blues take on the Magpies – inevitable when you play in front of close to 90,000 passionate fans at the home of football. And while there is a significant gap between these two sides this year, there is plenty on the line in this game.

The Blues badly need a win. After going down to the Kangas last week their finals hopes look shot, but a win against the Premiership favourite would put them back in the mix and take a lot of pressure off the broad shoulders of Michael Voss – at least for the time being.

Actually earning the four points, however, will not exactly be an easy task. The Magpies hardly got out of first gear against the Eagles last week, but that win was their 13th from their last 14 games. They’re clearly the best team in the comp at the moment, and though the Blues will come out with plenty of intent, Collingwood should be too good.

Expert Tip

Magpies to win by 1-39 @ $2.20 with EliteBet

The Pies have lost just one of their last 14 games, but the Blues should come out firing after last week’s dismal effort and can avoid a blowout.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Total match points: Under 160.5 @ $1.90 with PlayUp
• Disposals: Josh Daicos to record 30+ @ $2.15 with Bet365

• Date: Friday 4th of July
• First bounce: 8.20pm AEST
• Venue: Optus Stadium, Perth
• Broadcast info: Channel Seven (NSW), 7Mate (WA), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Team A Odds	Team B Odds
	$3.70	$1.28
	$3.85	$1.27
	$3.70	$1.27

Match Analysis

A 1-14 start to Andrew McQualter’s coaching career at the Eagles is not ideal, but they have at least been a little more competitive over the past month. Admittedly that’s holding them to a very low standard, but that’s what happens when you win 11 games in nearly four years.

The Giants, meanwhile, earned a pivotal four points against the Suns in a close game last weekend, making it four wins from their last five. Given the last three of those wins have been by an average of seven points they could probably count themselves lucky to win them all, but win them they have, and they should have an easier time of things this weekend.

Slightly improved the Eagles may be, they’re still the worst team in the league (though the Tigers are making a play for that title), and the talent differential in this game is enormous. The Giants have work to do to prove they’re capable of doing any damage this season, but in what looms as a tight run to September, this really should be a comfortable win.

Expert Tip

Giants -24.5 @ $1.90 with PlayUp

This looks like a short line for a talented team against the worst side in the comp.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Margin: Giants to win by 40+ @ $3.00 with Bet365 
• Goalscorer: Aaron Cadman to kick 3+ goals @ $3.40 with Bet365

• Date: Saturday 5th of July
• First bounce: 12.35pm AEST
• Venue: Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
• Broadcast info: Channel Seven (QLD), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Team A Odds	Team B Odds
	$3.70	$1.28
	$3.75	$1.28
	$3.60	$1.28

Match Analysis

Had the Suns not managed to hold off the Demons by 19 points last weekend, both of these two teams would be coming into this game on the back of four-game losing streaks. As it stands, only the Bombers find themselves in that ignominious category, their 41-point loss to the Dockers prior to the bye sending them three games back from the top eight.

Sitting in eighth are the Suns after their defeat of the Demons, though they have not exactly been in sparkling form. They’re still well-placed to make their first finals series in history, but it’s far from a lay-down misère and an upset loss this weekend will likely see them fall out of the eight.

The Suns deserve to be favourites, but the Bombers aren’t without a chance in this one. Their last two performances have been poor, but prior to that they’d put in some solid showings against better teams than the Suns, and at Marvel Stadium they are a sneaky outside chance of pulling this off.

Expert Tip

Bombers to win @ $3.75 with Bet365

The Bombers look like great value on the betting apps against a floundering Suns team that doesn’t travel well.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Margin: Bombers to win by 1-39 @ $4.00 with PlayUp
• Line: Bombers +22.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365

• Aaron Cadman to kick 3+ goals vs Eagles @ $3.40 with Bet365: 50 games into his career, the number one pick is beginning to look very comfortable having kicked 8 goals in his last two games.
• Hawks -18.5 vs Saints @ $1.90 with PlayUp: The Hawks have beaten two good teams and pumped a not-so-good one in the past three weeks, while the Saints have lost three on the trot by an average of 39.3 points.
• Hugh McCluggage to record 25+ touches vs Power @ $1.87 with Bet365: It’s strange to see this at close to even money. McCluggage failed to hit this number last week, but had in six of his previous seven games, the sole exception coming when he had 24.

Same Game Multi Tip

• Date: Saturday 5th of July
• First bounce: 4.15pm AEST
• Venue: GMHBA Stadium, Geelong
• Broadcast info: Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Team A Odds	Team B Odds
	$1.02	$14.00
	$1.02	$15.00
	$1.02	$13.00

Match Analysis

After a very impressive five-game winning streak, the Cats put in their worst performance in some time in their last game before the bye, going down at home by 41 points to the Lions. This weekend, however, they get a great chance to bounce back emphatically following their week off.

The Tigers have shown plenty in a year they entered with very low expectations, but the wheels are starting to fall off for this young group. They’ve now suffered three consecutive big defeats and ill-discipline from their leaders – well, from Tom Lynch – will see their young forward line left vulnerable for this week and likely quite a few more.

This will be a stern test for the Tigers. There is the potential for a couple of talented youngsters to come into the side, but that won’t likely do much to prevent the Cats from giving them a touch up down in Geelong.

Expert Tip

Cats -60.5 @ $1.90 with EliteBet

The young Tigers are beginning to struggle, and the Cats should be able to flex their collective muscle at GMHBA.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Disposals: Bailey Smith to record 35+ @ $2.50 with Bet365
• Goalscorer: Oliver Dempsey to kick 2+ goals @ $1.91 with Bet365

• Date: Saturday 5th of July
• First bounce: 7.30pm AEST
• Venue: Gabba, Brisbane
• Broadcast info: Channel Seven (QLD, SA), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Team A Odds	Team B Odds
	$1.22	$4.30
	$1.22	$4.35
	$1.23	$4.20

Match Analysis

The Lions have had an interesting season. Without really playing at their best, they still managed to win nine of their first 11 games, but two losses thereafter sent them back to the pack. But on the eve of their bye, a 41-point win over the Cats in Geelong righted the ship and sent them into 2nd spot. Still, they’re just half a game clear of 6th, and can ill-afford to drop games they’re expected to win – like this one.

Brisbane should be too good at home, but the Power have come into some form of late to win three of their last four games, the latest a dominant performance against the Blues. Two games back from the eight, they’re perhaps the league’s best chance of breaking into what appears to be a top nine, but this will be a tough test.

The Lions have not been as dominant at home as we are used to, but the Power have by and large struggled away from home. Port can perhaps match their superior opponent in the middle of the ground, but Brisbane is much more well-balanced across the park and particularly on their home surface, will likely be too good.

Expert Tip

Lions to win by 1-39 @ $2.25 with PlayUp

The Power were good last week and should be competitive, but in Brisbane the Lions are tough to beat.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Total match points: Over 168.5 @ $1.90 with EliteBet
• Disposals: Hugh McCluggage to record 25+ @ $1.87 with Bet365

• Date: Saturday 5th of July
• First bounce: 7.50pm AEST
• Venue: Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
• Broadcast info: Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Team A Odds	Team B Odds
	$3.25	$1.34
	$3.20	$1.36
	$3.20	$1.35

Match Analysis

These two teams enter this game on the back of starkly contrasting three-week periods. For the Saints, three consecutive losses have stamped their papers – not that many thought they had any realistic shot at the finals anyway – sending them to 5-10 and resigning them to another disappointing season.

The Hawks, meanwhile, have turned things around after a couple of losses sent them teetering on the edge of the eight. They’ve been great over the past three weeks, beating the Dogs and Crows and then last week demolishing a usually competitive North Melbourne team.

Sometimes a line just looks way too short, and this is one of those times. The Hawks are slick and skilful while the Saints are slow and predictable, and with the superior team also playing their best footy of the year, this line looks like one of the best australianbettingsites.net.au tips for the weekend..

Expert Tip

Hawks -18.5 @ $1.90 with Bet365

The Hawks are a much better team, and in much better form than the Saints.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Margin: Hawks 40+ @ $3.60 with Bet365
• Goalscorer: Jack Gunston to kick 3+ goals @ $2.30 with Bet365

• Date: Sunday 6th of July
• First bounce: 1.10pm AEST
• Venue: SCG, Sydney
• Broadcast info: Channel Seven (NSW, WA), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Team A Odds	Team B Odds
	$1.57	$2.40
	$1.65	$2.25
	$1.56	$2.42

Match Analysis

What an interesting clash this one is. The Swans are finally beginning to look like a half-decent team again, and it’s no coincidence that has coincided with the return of Errol Gulden and to a lesser extent Tom Papley. They’ve played really well the past fortnight, their goalkicking a notable exception, and if they can sort that out it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them put together some sort of a run in the back half of the year.

The Dockers, meanwhile, have gone and win six on the trot without the AFL world making much of a peep about them. They don’t get much airtime over east, but they have a really good midfield, a talented and well-balanced forward line and a strong back six, and at their best are a really difficult team to beat.

A team on a six-game winning streak being underdogs against a side which has been relatively underwhelming looks, at first glance, like value, but I can’t help but agree with the bookies. Expect this to be a close, highly contested game on the small SCG, but with a bit of form behind them the Swans can sneak over the line.

Expert Tip

Swans to win by 1-24 @ $3.35 with PlayUp

The Swans are starting to play some good footy, but this should be a low-scoring, tight game. 

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Margin: Swans 1-39 @ 2.20 with PlayUp
• Total match points: Under 158.5 @ $1.90 with Bet365

• Date: Sunday 6th of July
• First bounce: 3.15pm AEST
• Venue: Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
• Broadcast info: Channel Seven (VIC, SA), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Team A Odds	Team B Odds
	$1.24	$4.10
	$1.23	$4.20
	$1.23	$4.10

Match Analysis

Round 17 concludes at the Adelaide Oval, where the Crows will attempt to further embed themselves in the top four against a Demons side on a four-game losing streak. Adelaide weren’t tested last weekend against the Tigers, but they won’t care; they got an important percentage boost in the 68-point win, and theirs is now the best in the league, which may well come in handy later in the year.

In contrast, the Demons are probably starting to feel pretty disengaged from season 2025. They’ve had their moments and a month ago looked like they were maybe getting it together, but those four losses have sent them to 5-10 and well and truly out of the finals picture.

The Dees still boast plenty of good players and the likes of Petracca, Gawn and Pickett mean they are at least somewhat competitive against good teams, but they’re just a tier below the genuine finals contenders, of which Adelaide are clearly one. A blowout seems unlikely, but it should be a comfortable win for the home side.

Expert Tip

Crows to win by 1-39 @ $2.20 with EliteBet

Though they’re on a four-game losing streak, the Dees have not been getting blown out.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Goalscorer: Bayley Fritsch to kick 2+ goals @ $1.80 with Bet365
• Goalscorer: Riley Thilthorpe to kick 3+ goals @ $2.40 with Bet365