AFL 2025 Round 21 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

Round 20 did not exactly bring a plethora of good games, with the Hawks’ relatively comfortable 24-point win over the Blues on Thursday night the closest out of the first eight. The last of them, however, delivered in spades, with one of the most remarkable comebacks of all-time ending in a six-point win for the Saints over the disappointing Demons. Fortunately, there will likely be a lot more close games than that this weekend, and probably in games a lot more significant, too. It kicks off with two massive games on Thursday and Friday night between first the Giants and Bulldogs, and then the Crows and Hawks, while the best of the lot is saved for Saturday night when the Magpies host the Lions in a rematch of the 2023 Grand Final. Below, our go-to man for all things footy at Australianbettingsites delivers his AFL tips and previews for all nine games across a massive weekend of footy.

Odds provided by Playup

• Date: Thursday, 31st of July
• First bounce: 7.30pm AEST
• Venue: Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
• Broadcast info: Channel Seven (VIC, SA), 7Mate (NSW, QLD, WA), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Western Bulldogs Odds	Greater Western Sydney Giants Odds
	$1.57	$2.40
	$1.60	$2.35
	$1.58	$2.38

Match Analysis

Round 21 kicks off with a bang, with a huge clash between two teams fighting for spots in the top eight. The Bulldogs are coming off a strong display against the Bombers in which Sam Darcy and Aaron Naughton combined for 13 goals, but they remain outside of the top eight and badly need to prove that they can play their best footy against top teams. Their record against teams below them is dominant to display the least, but they’re 1-7 against the rest.

But the Giants can ill-afford to take them lightly, despite that record, because the Dogs have been in virtually all of those losses, and the solitary victory against those teams was against the Giants themselves – and in Sydney no less. GWS are playing a lot better now than they were then, having won six on the trot, but they will be undermanned after their brilliant comeback win against the Swans last week came at a cost – Josh Kelly and Jack Buckley picked up injuries which will rule them out for the remainder of the home and away season, while Toby Greene’s white line fever reared its ugly head for the first time in a while and resulted in a one-match ban for a rogue elbow to the head of Isaac Heeney.

The Bulldogs look a little short at around $1.60 with most betting sites given their record against top teams, but there is reason to like their chances. Not only did they beat the Giants early in the season up in Sydney, but the Giants’ absentees will likely be pivotal – particularly Jack Buckley, given the Dogs’ key forward presence. This could be a high-scoring, close and very entertaining affair, but the Dogs might just be able to sneak over the line.

Expert Tip

Bulldogs to win by 1-39 @ $2.15 with Bet365

This is a great chance for the Dogs to buck the trend against top eight sides, but it won’t be easy.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Bulldogs to win by 1-24 @ $3.40 with PlayUp
• Aaron Naughton to kick 3+ goals @ $2.00 with Bet365

• Date: Friday, 1st of August
• First bounce: 7.40pm AEST
• Venue: Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
• Broadcast info: Channel Seven (VIC, SA), 7Mate (NSW, QLD, WA), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Adelaide Crows Odds	Hawthorn Hawks Odds
	$1.48	$2.68
	$1.47	$2.70
	$1.48	$2.66

Match Analysis

Another big game takes centre stage on Friday night, with the 2nd placed Crows on taking on the 5th placed Hawks in a game which will have huge repercussions in the race for the top four. The two met just six weeks ago, and incidentally that three-point Hawthorn win was the last time Adelaide have lost. Since then, they’ve reeled off five consecutive victories, the last two by 61 points against the Suns and 98 points against the Power.

The Hawks haven’t been so bad themselves since that game, winning four of their past five, though it’s safe to say that their draw has been a little easier and their wins less impressive. Those wins have all been against teams that won’t be challenging for finals spots while the solitary loss was against the only team that will be, so this will prove a major test as they attempt to establish themselves as legitimate contenders.

The Hawks are a really good, well-balanced team and can’t be ruled out, but the Crows’ form is probably better than any other team in the league and at Adelaide Oval, they are looking almost impossible to stop at the minute. The Hawks should theoretically match-up well against their dangerous three-pronged forward line, but the Crows have enough avenues to goal to put up another winning score.

Expert Tip

Crows -13.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365

The Crows are looking unstoppable at Adelaide Oval, and the 13.5-point line on the betting apps would look small against just about any team.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Crows 40+ @ $4.33 with Bet365
• Jake Soligo to record 25+ disposals @ $3.00 with PlayUp

• Date: Saturday, 2nd of August
• First bounce: 2.20pm AEST
• Venue: MCG, Melbourne
• Broadcast info: Channel Seven (WA), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Melbourne Demons Odds	West Coast Eagles Odds
	$1.11	$6.45
	$1.11	$6.50
	$1.11	$6.55

Match Analysis

After a potentially scintillating first couple of games of Round 21, Saturday’s first game doesn’t quite have the same appeal. The Dees are fresh off an horrendous defeat against the Saints in which they made history by conceding the biggest final quarter comeback in VFL/AFL history, giving up a 46-point three-quarter time lead to lose by six points.

Bad as that was, it pales in comparison to what has been another hapless season by the Eagles. Their 49-point loss to the Dockers, took their record to 1-18 and was compounded by an ankle injury to Harley Reid which will likely end his season – and potentially his career at West Coast?

Both of these teams will be keen to see the end of the season, but this does at least afford the Demons an opportunity to secure something that has been a lot harder to come by than they would have liked this season – four points. Disappointing as they have been, they are a hell of a lot better than the Eagles and should win this easily.

Expert Tip

Demons -41.5 @ $1.90 with EliteBet

The Eagles lost by 49 points to Richmond in Perth just a fortnight ago, so 41 points looks attainable for anyone.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Bayley Fritsch to score 3 or more goals @ $2.75 with Bet365
• Kysaiah Pickett to record 20+ disposals @ $1.85 with Bet365

• Date: Saturday, 2nd of August
• First bounce: 4.10pm AEST
• Venue: People First Stadium, Gold Coast
• Broadcast info: 7Mate (QLD), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Gold Coast Suns Odds	Richmond Tigers Odds
	$1.06	$9.25
	$1.06	$9.50
	$1.05	$10.00

Match Analysis

On paper, this might look like little more than an opportunity for the Suns to solidify their spot in the top eight as they hunt down their first ever finals appearance. But there are a couple of sneaky interesting storylines in this one. The Suns put in perhaps their best performance of the season last week in beating the Lions by 66 points, but though they have an easy run home, their spot in the finals is far from assured, and the Tigers got the better of them earlier in the year in a massive upset.

Richmond, of course, will also be keen to throw a spanner in the works of their former three-time Premiership coach Damian Hardwick as he attempts to make history with his new team. And while it’s probably a bridge too far for them, they did, as mentioned, beat the Suns last time they played, and were competitive against the Pies last weekend after two consecutive wins prior to that.

The Tigers still have a long way to go, but they are a better team than virtually everyone expected this year and there is no denying their talent. They have demonstrated an ability to match it with far superior teams this season, so while the Suns will likely be able to cruise to a reasonably comfortable win here, expect the Tigers to hang around for two or three quarters.

Expert Tip

Tigers +46.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365

The Tigers have been playing decent footy over the past few weeks and can keep this one under the line.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Suns to win by 1-39 @ $2.60 with PlayUp
• Tyler Sonsie to record 20+ disposals @ $2.20 with Bet365

• Aaron Naughton to kick 3+ goals @ $2.00 with Bet365 – Aaron Naughton has been in excellent form since Sam Darcy’s return and last week’s seven-goal effort was the fourth time in five games he’s kicked at least three. Sam Taylor will likely head to Darcy, and with Jack Buckley out Naughton will have an easier time than he otherwise would have against a strong defence.
• Crows -13.5 @ $1.90 with Bet365 – The Hawks have been in decent form of late but primarily against average opposition. The Crows are far from that, particularly in Adelaide. They’ve won their last six home games at home by an average of nearly 46 points, and against some very good opposition.
• Swans -49.5 @ $1.90 with EliteBet – Despite their ladder position, the Swans are a good team and particularly on their home turf. The Bombers are absolutely decimated by injuries and did not have nearly the talent to start with to be able to handle them, and after a thumping defeat last week could be in for another in Round 21.

Same Game Multi Tip

• Date: Saturday, 2nd of August
• First bounce: 4.15pm AEST
• Venue: SCG, Sydney
• Broadcast info: 7Mate (NSW), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Sydney Swans Odds	Essendon Bombers Odds
	$1.05	$9.50
	$1.05	$10.00
	$1.04	$10.50

Match Analysis

The Swans have made a decent fist at working themselves into finals contention after a dreadful first half of the season, but their second-half fade-out last week against the Giants saw those already dim finals hopes fade, most likely, to nothing. They’re now three games and percentage out of the eight with four to go, but can at least keep their mathematical hopes alive with likely an easy win this weekend.

It's hard to be too critical of the Bombers given their injury list, but regardless of who’s missing, the simple reality is that they are a dreadful team at the minute. They’ve now lost eight games on the trot, and the 93-point margin against the Dogs last weekend looked better for them than it could have.

The Swans are a finals level team now that they have names like Gulden, Mills and Papley back, even if they won’t actually be playing finals. And up against a Bombers team that was average to start with and is dreadfully undermanned, they should be able to win this one in a landslide.

Expert Tip

Swans -49.5 @ $1.90 with EliteBet

The Bombers are arguably the second or third-worst team in the league in their current state, and the Swans should take advantage.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Swans 40+ @ $1.52 with Bet365
• Jack Buller to kick 3+ goals @ $4.50 with PlayUp

• Date: Saturday, 2nd of August
• First bounce: 7.35pm AEST
• Venue: MCG, Melbourne
• Broadcast info: Channel Seven (QLD), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Collingwood Magpies Odds	Brisbane Lions Odds
	$1.57	$2.40
	$1.58	$2.40
	$1.50	$2.38

Match Analysis

There are a number of big games this weekend, but none can trump this one. Less than two years ago these two teams played out one of the best Grand Finals in recent memories, and this year they may very well find themselves there once again. The Magpies have sat well-clear atop the ladder for months now, and while a couple of losses have put their spot there in jeopardy, they held on for the time being with a win against a competitive Tigers team last Sunday.

The Lions, in contrast, had a four-game winning streak snapped last weekend in a disappointing effort against the Suns. They lost that won by 66 points, slipping to third on the ladder as a result. But they remain very much in the hunt for an all-important top two spot, and if they win here it will cause a massive shake-up among the top three. A loss, in contrast, could theoretically see them slip as low as 7th.

It's safe to say there’s plenty on the line, and given these two teams’ recent history against one another it’s safe to say there will be no shortage of enthusiasm when the ball is bounced. This has the potential to be one of the best games of the season and after their effort last week, the Lions will surely come out breathing fire. In front of a heaving Magpies-centric crowd, however, the home side can end the game with their noses in front.

Expert Tip

Magpies to win by 1-39 @ $2.05 with EliteBet

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Magpies to win by 1-24 @ $3.20 with EliteBet
• Magpies to win by 1-9 @ $8.00 with Bet365

• Date: Sunday, 3rd of August
• First bounce: 1.40pm AEST
• Venue: Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
• Broadcast info: Fox Footy

Bookmaker	St. Kilda Saints Odds	North Melbourne Kangaroos Odds
	$1.32	$3.40
	$1.31	$3.50
	$1.31	$3.40

Match Analysis

The Saints have not necessarily had all that much to cheer about this year, but they got just about a full season’s worth of excitement in one quarter last weekend. They were pretty poor for three quarters against a Demons side in a similar position to what they are, entering the final break 46 points down, but that set the scene for the greatest final quarter comeback which ended with a six-six-six infringement, and two goals and a speccy to Nasaiah Wanganeen-Milera in perhaps the best individual eight seconds of football in history.

In stark contrast, the Kangaroos were, once again, pretty pathetic. The 101-point margin at the final siren against the Cats flattered them, and made it five losses on the trot as they continue what might be one of the slowest rebuilds we’ve ever seen.

The Saints are no world-beaters, so if they actually play at the level they are capable of the Roos can make a game of this. Their recent performances inspire little confidence that they can do that while the Saints will be riding a wave of momentum after that last quarter, but the Roos should see this as an opportunity for a rare win and can at least keep it close.

Expert Tip

Kangaroos +24.5 @ $1.90 with PlayUp

The Roos have been dreadful of late, but are capable of much more.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Saints to win by 1-39 @ $2.20 with PlayUp
• Kangaroos to win the first half @ $3.00 with EliteBet

• Date: Sunday, 3rd of August
• First bounce: 3.15pm AEST
• Venue: GMHBA Stadium
• Broadcast info: Channel Seven (VIC, SA), 7Mate (NSW), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Geelong Cats Odds	Port Adelaide Power Odds
	$1.06	$9.00
	$1.08	$8.00
	$1.07	$8.00

Match Analysis

After an indifferent month, the Cats were back to their best last week, absolutely destroying the Kangaroos en route to a 101-point which could easily have been more. Jeremy Cameron was the star of the show with 11 goals as he continues his quest to reach triple-figures, but with the Cats sitting just one spot from both 2nd and 8th, there are bigger fish to fry for the boys in the blue and white hoops over the coming weeks.

The Power, meanwhile, have little left to play for over the remaining month of the year expect to send Ken Hinkley off in positive fashion. Their season has been a rank disappointment, never more so than in last week’s Showdown, in which they lost by 98 points in perhaps their worst performance of the year.

A difference of 199 points in their respective results last week is not reflective of the gap between these two teams, but it’s fair to say that the Cats will be looking to put up another big win this weekend. Back on their home turf at GMHBA Stadium, they should be able to give their already healthy percentage another hefty boost on Sunday afternoon.

Expert Tip

Cats -47.5 @ $1.90 with PlayUp

The Cats are coming off a confidence-boosting win, and the Power off a confidence-sapping loss.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Cats to win by 40+ @ $1.60 with Bet365
• Cats -23.5 first-half line @ $1.85 with PlayUp

• Date: Sunday, 3rd of August
• First bounce: 7.10pm AEST
• Venue: Optus Stadium, Perth
• Broadcast info: Channel Seven (WA), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Fremantle Dockers Odds	Carlton Blues Odds
	$1.17	$5.00
	$1.21	$4.50
	$1.18	$4.80

Match Analysis

It’s indicative of just how tight competition for spots in the top eight is that the Dockers are still sitting back in 7th. They have lost just one of their last ten games, and last weekend cruised to victory against their cross-town rivals in a predictably uninspiring edition of the Derby. But while they’re currently on track for an away Elimination Final in the first week of finals, with just four points separating them from 2nd they could easily improve their position, and quickly.

The Blues, meanwhile, suffered yet another defeat last weekend, taking their record to 7-12 as the pressure continues to mount on coach Michael Voss. They have nothing left to play for over the last month of the season in terms of this season, but for Voss and plenty of his chargers, these next few weeks could prove career-defining.

They can ill-afford to get pumped in this one, but the Dockers are playing some really good footy and will be hard to keep pace with. Freo are not typically the kind of team to really sink the boot in to inferior opposition, so the Blues should be able to at least avoid a catastrophic blowout, but the Dockers should still be far too strong.

Expert Tip

Dockers to win by 1-39 @ $2.05 with Bet365

It’s hard to see the Dockers losing, but the Blues can keep it semi-respectable.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Dockers to win by 1-24 @ $3.75 with PlayUp
• Blues +41.5 @ $1.58 with PlayUp