AFL 2025 Round 23 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

Just two rounds remain in the AFL home and away season, and this weekend will go a long way to determining which eight teams feature in September. There are still nine teams that need to fit into those eight spots, while within the top eight basically every team currently inside it still has the capacity to finish inside the top four. This weekend, six of those eight teams will play one another in the definition of eight-point games – matches which will define the year for both those teams and those around them. The round begins with a Friday night double-header, with a Bombers vs St. Kilda game that no one will be too interested in kicking off an hour before a huge clash between the Dockers and the Lions, while Saturday will see the Giants take on the Suns and the Crows host the Magpies in two of the biggest games of the year to date. Below you can check out the AFL tips and previews from our resident footy expert at Australianbettingsites for all nine games across the weekend.

Odds provided by Playup

• Date: Friday, 15th of August
• First bounce: 7.20pm AEST
• Venue: Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
• Broadcast info: Channel Seven (VIC, SA), 7Mate (NSW), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Bombers Odds	Saints Odds
	$3.90	$1.26
	$4.00	$1.25
	$3.90	$1.26

Match Analysis

The Bombers have seemingly had a permanent fixture on Thursday or Friday nights over the past couple of months, not something the wider football public has been particularly thrilled with, and it continues this weekend when they kick off the round against St. Kilda – though fortunately, neutrals will be able to flick over to what will be a much, much better game just before half-time.

The Bombers and the Saints have won six and eight games respectively this season, though they do come into this one with relatively different form lines. Essendon’s loss to the Cats last weekend was their 10th in a row after they started the season 6-4, while in contrast the Saints have actually won three on the trot. Those wins have, however, come against three of the bottom six teams, and all by single-figure margins.

This is not a game that too many people will be clambering to their couches to watch, though for Saints fans it is at least a great opportunity to see their team win four on the trot – not a feat they achieve very often. It’s reflective of just how badly the Dons are going that they are such rank outsiders against St. Kilda, but those odds are justified. The Saints probably won’t blow them out of the water, but they should be winning this one.

Expert Tip

Saints to win by 1-39 @ $2.00 with Bet365

The Saints are in winning form and the Bombers, to put it kindly, are not, though St. Kilda isn’t exactly the kind of side which puts bad teams to the sword.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Liam McMahon to kick 2+ goals @ $2.60 with Bet365
• Nasaiah Wanganeen-Milera to record 35+ diposals @ $1.90 with PlayUp

• Date: Friday, 15th of August
• First bounce: 9.20pm AEST
• Venue: Optus Stadium, Perth
• Broadcast info: Channel Seven (QLD, WA), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Dockers Odds	Lions Odds
	$1.77	$2.05
	$1.78	$2.05
	$1.76	$2.06

Match Analysis

Now to the good stuff. Rarely has there been a Friday night game in Perth with as much riding on it as this one, and the football world will be watching with interest as these two teams try to solidify their spots in both the top eight and potentially the top four. The Dockers currently sit 4th following a fifth consecutive win and an 11th in 12 games last weekend, though they needed some late-game heroics from skipper Alex Pearce to get there against the Power. Still, a win’s a win, and they needed it – a top four spot is in their hands if they win their next two games, but with the Bulldogs waiting after the Lions, two losses is just as likely.

The Lions, meanwhile, really fumbled the bag against the Swans last weekend, with an incredible last couple of minutes seeing them fall just two points short of the team they beat in last year’s Grand Final. They now need a team above them to stumble if they’re to make top four, and with Freo then Hawthorn waiting they’re still not assured a finals spot if they lose both.

There is a massive amount on the line for both teams in this one and the situations they’ll find themselves in depending on the result are vastly different. It’s hard to see either team getting too far away from the other and this one looks likely to go down to the wire, but the Dockers are finding a way to win time after time of late, and with the 19th man in the Optus Stadium crowd behind them, they can sneak over the line for another pivotal win.

Expert Tip

Dockers to win by 1-39 @ $2.30 with Bet365

A big win for either team would be a huge shock, but the Dockers have the winning form behind them.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Dockers to win by 1-24 @ $3.50 with PlayUp
• Under 167.5 total match points @ $1.89 with Bet365

• Date: Saturday, 16th of August
• First bounce: 12.35pm AEST
• Venue: People First Stadium, Gold Coast
• Broadcast info: Channel Seven (NSW, QLD), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Suns Odds	Giants Odds
	$1.50	$2.60
	$1.50	$2.60
	$1.50	$2.60

Match Analysis

Never have the AFL’s two newest teams played one another in a game of such magnitude. Primarily that’s because for the most part, the Suns have not been in the finals picture, but they certainly are now and a win here could put them right on the cusp of the top four. But with the Bulldogs lurking a game back and with a frightening percentage, a loss here could see the Suns slip out of the eight – though they do at least have an extra game up their sleeves.

The same situation applies for the Giants. Like the Suns, they have 14 wins to their name – and at 14-7 should really be a lock for the top eight. Instead, they’re just hanging on to a spot, and if they lose this will almost certainly drop to 9th. They’ve had a relatively soft last month of games and their toughest clash resulted in a big loss to the Dogs, but their talent is undeniable and they are more than capable of causing plenty of problems for Gold Coast.

Both teams will come out breathing fire with their seasons on the line, and this is another game which could easily go down to the wire. The Suns are a very good team at home and will not be easy to beat, but the Giants are a very talented team, and with everything on the line, look like great value to beat their fellow expansion team.

Expert Tip

Giants to win @ $2.60 with EliteBet

This game could go either way, and the Giants look like the value pick at $2.60.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Giants +12.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365
• Giants to win by 1-39 @ $3.25 with PlayUp

• Date: Saturday, 16th of August
• First bounce: 1.20pm AEST
• Venue: Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
• Broadcast info: Channel Seven (SA), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Blues Odds	Power Odds
	$1.52	$2.55
	$1.50	$2.60
	$1.49	$2.62

Match Analysis

oth the Blues and the Power harboured finals ambitions entering this season, but each is going to fall short by quite some way. The Blues have been consistently losing by four or five goals to good teams of late, but despite the raft of losses, Blues’ coach Michael Voss will survive after Carlton confirmed he’ll coach next year a week ago.

Not so for Ken Hinkley, for whom 2025 was always going to be the last year in charge. And his team hasn’t exactly sent him off with a bang; they’ve had a really disappointing season and have lost four on the trot over the past month, though they did make a very good fist of things last week when going down by just a goal to the Dockers.

This is not a game on which there is a great deal riding, with both teams out of finals contention and the fates of each coach next year already decided. The Blues are favourites largely because the game is in Melbourne, and while there is every chance that proves justified, there isn’t all that much separating these two teams and the Power look like the value pick.

Expert Tip

Port Adelaide to win @ $2.62 with EliteBet

The Power were much improved last week, and in what should be a close game they look like the value.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Power +12.5 @ $1.90 with EliteBet
• Power to win by 1-39 @ $2.90 with Bet365

• Tigers to win @ $2.50 with Bet365 – It’s difficult to tip the Tigers with any great deal of confidence and I’m certainly not here, but the same could be said about the Kangaroos. With the Tigers installed as relatively comfortable outsiders on the betting apps, they look like good value to knock off one of just two teams below them on the ladder.
• Swans to win @ $3.20 with Bet365 – The Swans were the best team in the AFL just over 12 months ago and after a bad start to the season, are somewhat resembling a really good team again. They appear keen to finish the season on a high and look like great value against a Cats team which has only been winning against poor opposition.
• Bulldogs -70.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365 – The Bulldogs love pumping bad teams as much as anyone in the league, something to which their percentage speaks, and the Eagles are as bad as anyone. This has all the makings of a three-figure margin.

Same Game Multi Tip

• Date: Saturday, 16th of August
• First bounce: 4.15pm AEST
• Venue: MCG, Melbourne 
• Broadcast info: Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Hawks Odds	Demons Odds
	$1.29	$3.60
	$1.30	$3.60
	$1.30	$3.50

Match Analysis

The Hawks are one of just a couple of teams within the eight who get to play a team outside of it this weekend, giving them a great opportunity to climb a couple of spots up the ladder and keep their top four hopes alive. They’re coming off their best performance of the year, absolutely pumping the Pies, and with the Dogs breathing down their necks they needed it too. They’re now in a great position to play finals and challenge for top four, but this is an absolute must-win.

The Dees should theoretically prove an easy enough win for the Hawks, but beware the team with a new coach. Melbourne put in one of their better performances of the season following Simon Goodwin’s sacking last week as teams so often do, nearly knocking off the Dogs – which would have been very useful for the Hawks and a few other teams if they had been successful.

But while the Hawks can’t afford to just waltz up and get the win, after how well they played last weekend they really should be good enough to pick up another comfortable victory. The Dees might be able to hang around for a little while, but class should prevail in the end for the Hawks.

Expert Tip

Hawks -22.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365

This is a relatively short line for the Hawks against a team they really should be beating comfortably.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Bayley Fritsch to kick 2+ goals @ $1.80 with Bet365
• Jack Gunston to kick 3+ goals @ $2.15 with Bet365

• Date: Saturday, 16th of August
• First bounce: 7.35pm AEST
• Venue: Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
• Broadcast info: Channel Seven (SA), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Crows Odds	Magpies Odds
	$1.42	$2.90
	$1.40	$3.00
	$1.40	$2.95

Match Analysis

There are plenty of big games this weekend, but this one might be the biggest. In what could easily be a Grand Final preview, the first-placed Crows take on the team that has occupied that spot for much of the year in Collingwood. But the Magpies have hit a massive roadblock of late; their thumping defeat at the hands of the Hawks last weekend was their fourth in five weeks after winning 14 of 15 prior to that, and they looked a shadow of their former selves in that performance.

The Crows, meanwhile, have won seven in a row and ten of their last 11, and with the Kangaroos to come next week they will almost certainly finish top four and probably top two, even with a loss here. But they’ll be eager to take it out of the hands of fate, and given their form at home it’s hard to tip against them doing exactly that.

The Crows weren’t at their best against the Eagles in Perth last weekend, but they haven’t lost at home since April and have won impressively in a lot of those outings. The Magpies of a couple of months ago would give them a good run, but that form has completely deserted them of late. It’s hard to entirely write off the Pies – we know what they’re capable of and it would be no surprise to see them give this a close run, but it’s impossible to tip against the Crows in Adelaide.

Expert Tip

Crows to win by 1-39 @ $2.20 with PlayUp

The Crows at home is about as tough a trip as there is in footy, though if the Pies can bring their A-game they can keep it close.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Crows to win by 1-24 @ $3.35 with PlayUp
• Jamie Elliott to kick 2+ goals @ $1.83 with Bet365

• Date: Sunday, 17th of August
• First bounce: 1.10pm AEST
• Venue: Ninja Stadium, Hobart 
• Broadcast info: Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Kangaroos Odds	Tigers Odds
	$1.55	$2.45
	$1.54	$2.50
	$1.54	$2.48

Match Analysis

Sunday’s action kicks off with a clash between two of the bottom three teams in the league when the Kangaroos face the Tigers down in Tassie. The Roos have once again failed to show all that much tangible improvement in 2025, with seven consecutive losses seeing them fall to 4-16-1 and below even the Tigers on the ladder.

Given the low expectations of Richmond this year, few would have expected that. Some had the Tigers failing to win a game given their rampant list turnover in the off-season and only two wins last year, but they’ve exceeded all expectations to win five and went very close to winning a sixth against the Saints last year.

The Roos should theoretically be ahead of the Tigers given their stage of development, but they’ve been disappointing again for much of this year while Richmond have had a fairly successful year, all things considered. Still, on paper the Roos should really have the edge, but they don’t deserve to be such short-priced favourites against a Richmond team which is generally pretty competitive. It’s hard to back either of these teams with confidence, but the Tiges look like the better value.

Expert Tip

Tigers to win @ $2.50 with Bet365

Against a team which has lost seven games on the trot, $2.50 looks like value for the Tigers.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Tigers +10.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365
• Rhyan Mansell to kick 2+ goals @ $2.75 with Bet365

• Date: Sunday, 17th of August
• First bounce: 3.15pm AEST
• Venue: SCG, Sydney
• Broadcast info: Channel Seven (VIC), 7Mate (NSW, QLD), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Swans Odds	Cats Odds
	$3.05	$1.38
	$3.20	$1.36
	$3.10	$1.37

Match Analysis

The Swans are not going to play finals this year, but they are more than good enough to hold their own against most teams in top eight contention – if not all of them. Last week’s victory over the Lions was their seventh in their last nine games and re-affirmed the fact that this remains a very capable team, and were it not for a very poor first half of Dean Cox’s first season in charge they would be right in the mix.

The Cats are in some pretty strong form themselves having won by an average of 66 points to move into 2nd on the ladder, but their fixture has not exactly given them the ideal preparation for finals with all of those four teams are in the bottom seven. Going back even further, the Cats are 6-2 in their last eight, but those six wins were against bottom teams and the two losses were comfortable ones against the two good teams they’ve played.

This is an interesting game because unlike the Cats, the Swans have nothing really to play for, but that certainly didn’t stop them last week. They seem keen to end the season on a high, and will make for a lot more difficult opposition for the Cats than these odds suggest. At better than $3, the home team looks like value to cause a big upset and throw Geelong’s top two hopes into disarray.

Expert Tip

Swans to win @ $3.20 with Bet365

The Cats have been doing their winning against bad teams and struggling against the good ones – the Swans are somewhere in the middle, but have been playing well of late and look like value.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Swans +18.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365
• Swans to win by 1-39 @ $3.40 with Bet365

• Date: Sunday, 17th of August
• First bounce: 4.40pm AEST
• Venue: Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
• Broadcast info: Channel Seven (WA), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Bulldogs Odds	Eagles Odds
	$1.01	$16.00
	$1.006	$23.00
	$1.01	$19.75

Match Analysis

This one could get very ugly. The Bulldogs are somehow still outside of the eight and need a team above them to slip up if they’re to make finals, despite boasting a 13-8 record and a percentage of 135.4%. Their struggles against top teams has been well-documented (though the last top eight team they played they beat by 88 points), but against the more lowly sides, they have had no issues consistently giving their percentage a very healthy boost.

The Eagles are the definition of a lowly side. They were actually very competitive against the Crows last weekend, but that was an anomaly. They’re now 1-20 and have regularly been on the receiving end of heavy losses, most recently just two weeks ago when even the Demons beat them by 77 points.

Last week’s effort might give Eagles fans some hope that they can avoid a blowout, but the Doggies are arguably as unstoppable as any team in the league when they get a game on their own terms, which they will against the worst team in the business. The odds are about as lopsided as you’ll ever see, but even the 70-point line set by betting sites might not be enough.

Expert Tip

Bulldogs -70.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365

Seven of the Bulldogs’ last 11 wins have come by more than this margin, and the Eagles are easily the worst team in the league.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Bulldogs -101.5 @ $4.35 with PlayUp
• Aaron Naughton to kick 5+ goals @ $2.25 with Bet365