AFL 2025 Finals Week Two – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

The first week of the AFL Finals delivered a number of scintillating games and a finish straight out of a movie, with retiring Suns’ stalwart David Swallow kicking the winning score with seconds remaining to secure his club’s first ever finals victory. That sets up what is the biggest QClash in history by some margin on Saturday night when Gold Coast heads to the Gabba to take on the Lions, while the night prior, the Crows will host a Hawks’ team coming off a fantastic win over the Giants. Below, you can check out the AFL tips and previews from our resident footy expert at Australianbettingsites as these four teams fight it out for the two remaining spots in this year’s Preliminary Finals.

Odds provided by Playup

• Date: Friday, 12th of September
• First bounce: 7.40pm AEST
• Venue: Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
• Broadcast info: Channel 7 (NSW, VIC, QLD, SA), 7Mate (WA), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Crows Odds	Hawks Odds
	$1.74	$2.10
	$1.80	$2.02
	$1.73	$2.10

Match Analysis

Brilliant as their year has been, the Crows were outclassed by the Magpies last Thursday night, ultimately going down by 24 points on their own home turf. As expected, the game was red-hot to start and neither team was able to gain any sort of ascendancy during an intense first quarter, but while the visitors held just a six-point lead heading into the main break, the momentum had clearly swung their way. That carried through to the third quarter, with the Pies piling on the first five goals to set up what would prove an unassailable lead.

In complete contrast, the Hawks bounced out of the blocks in a scintillating first quarter with seven goals against the Giants, and by halfway through the third quarter had opened up a seemingly unassailable 42-point lead. But when the Giants turn it on they are extremely hard to stop, and they reminded the Hawks of that fact with six consecutive goals to end the third quarter, and another to start the last saw them snatch an unlikely one-point victory. Given that dominance, it was incredibly impressive that the Hawks were able to rally and boot the last three goals of the game to advance through to the semi with a 19-point win.

So here we are; a Hawks team coming off a fantastic win against a very good team, up against a Crows’ unit fresh off a comfortable loss to an even better one. Semi-finals are interesting because the tale is always the same; though the home team has been the better one all year and hosts the game, the visitors have their tails up and betting sites often have the game pegged as a close one. This is no exception.

But more often than not, it’s the team that has been better performed throughout the season that pulls through. The Hawks are a really capable team and were very impressive last weekend, but the Crows entered the finals on the back of nine straight wins and 12 from their last 13 games. Included among those wins was a 14-point defeat of the Hawks in Adelaide, and I’m tipping a similar result in this one.

Nobody would like at either of these teams and think they are the most talented in the league, but both are similar in that they possess a number of players far more appreciated inside their four walls than outside them. Each also has a multi-pronged attack with a number of targets and very capable backlines, so a relatively even match-up could very well be on the cards. But the Crows have been the best contested ball team in the league this season, something which will come in very handy in what will no doubt be a hotly contested game. With a raucous Adelaide crowd at their collective back, they can bounce back from last week’s defeat to earn a well-deserved Preliminary Final berth.

Expert Tip

Crows -2.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365

The Hawks might be fresh off a win, but the Crows have been as good as anyone all season long.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Crows 16+ @ $2.55 with PlayUp
• Jack Gunston 3+ goals @ $2.05 with Bet365

• Date: Saturday, 13th of September
• First bounce: 7.35pm AEST
• Venue: Gabba, Brisbane
• Broadcast info: Channel 7 (NSW, VIC, QLD, SA), 7Mate (WA), Fox Footy

Bookmaker	Lions Odds	Suns Odds
	$1.60	$2.35
	$1.56	$2.45
	$1.59	$2.36

Match Analysis

The QClash has not yet developed quite the history that the AFL would have liked – save for a bit of added spice courtesy largely of Dayne Zorko and Touk Miller – but finally, 15 years into the Suns’ existence, both Queensland-based teams are competitive, and will for the first time ever meet in a final. Unsurprisingly, the Lions have had the edge in the past against their intrastate rival; coming into the last matchup between the two, they had won 12 of the past 13 times these two teams have played.

But the Suns are as good as they have ever been this season, and last time these two met was arguably their best performance of the year. They were dominant from the outset, with a five-goal to two first quarter setting up an 11-goal victory as they hunted down their inaugural finals appearance. Since then the Suns have stumbled a little, but they were brilliant in coming from behind against the Dockers last weekend. Far from failing under the bright lights of the finals, they stormed out of the blocks and rallied after a last-quarter collapse to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, with the retiring David Swallow the hero.

The Lions, meanwhile, did seem to wilt on the finals stage. Despite entering the finals on the back of a number of strong wins over high-quality teams, they were belted from pillar to post by the Cats. They hung around for longer than they might have courtesy to some inaccuracy from their opposition and a couple of very questionable, momentum-turning umpiring, but Geelong’s dominance eventually became evident on the scoreboard and they ran out comfortable winners.

And so, as in the first semi, the Suns enter this game with their tails wagging, against a more highly fancied opponent coming off a really poor performance. But impressive as the Suns were last week, their big brother remains the better, more experienced team. Rarely have they been able to knock off the Lions in Brisbane – the home team has won the last seven games between the two at the Gabba, and 13 of 15 overall. Clearly some of those performances are no longer relevant, but even in recent times when the Suns have been more competitive, the Lions have had their measure – and generally comfortably – on their home turf.

I expect that to continue on Saturday night. The Suns have by most measures had a successful year, having not just made it through to their inaugural finals series, but won their first final in thrilling fashion. But the Lions remain one of the best, most well-balanced teams in the league, and even with Lachie Neale absent have more than enough depth to rebound from last week’s loss. Expect them to bounce back from a disappointing performance, and likely cover the relatively low line set by betting apps.

Expert Tip

Lions -10.5 @ $1.91 with PlayUp

Despite their contrasting results last weekend, the Lions are a superior side and should be too good at home.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Lions 25+ @ $2.75 with Bet365
• Josh Dunkley to record 30+ disposals @ $2.50 with Bet365

• Crows -2.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365 – The Crows have been a better team than the Hawks throughout the course of the year, and are particularly good at home. The line of just 2.5 which Aussie betting sites have set is an overreaction to the Hawks winning and the Crows losing last weekend, as is often the case in semi-finals.
• Lions -10.5 @ $1.91 with PlayUp – The same logic as above applies here. The Suns might have their tails up, but few would argue that they are a better team as the Lions, even after their dominant win last time they played. The more experienced Lions should be too good on their home turf.
• Crows v Hawks under 166.5 total match points – Despite the Crows’ reputation for being a highly aggressive team, they actually play a relatively safe game style and the scoring prowess for which they are known dried up last week when they scored just 55 points. Though I’m tipping them to win this one, I don’t expect it to be in a high-scoring game, particularly on a potentially dewy night at Adelaide Oval.

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