AFL 2025 Top 8 Betting Preview - Odds & Expert Predictions

The 2025 AFL season looks likely to have a very interesting race to the finals, with nine teams separating themselves from the pack and only eight spots available for them to squabble over. It appears almost certain that all but one of those teams will make it, setting up an interesting top 8 betting market, though with a couple of teams further down the ladder starting to find a little bit of form, it’s not entirely out of the realms of possibility that an unexpected contender for a finals spot or two emerges over the coming weeks. This make-up of the ladder means that there are a bulk of teams at short odds to play finals, and then a huge gap, so on this page we’ll take a look at which of the short-priced teams look certain to make it, and which value outsiders could make a run.

As you can see, it’s a funny old AFL top 8 betting market. Eight teams already either have their odds suspended or are very short, another sits clearly in ninth before there is a huge gap back to the rest. 

Outside of the Magpies and Cats, whose top 8 odds for AFL are suspended at the time of writing, the Crows are the shortest-priced team to make the finals. Percentage is a big reason why; while they’re locked in a logjam of teams from 3rd to 9th, they have the best percentage in the league, meaning they’d likely have to drift a full game clear of all those other teams to miss the eight. With a favourable draw to come they should have no issues making it, but you’ll be making almost less than bank interest at $1.01.

Bet on the Crows to make the top 8 at $1.01 with PlayUp

The Doggies’ best has been as good as anyone’s this season, though while they’ve beaten up on the bottom 9 they have struggled against fellow finals contenders. Still, while they’ve rarely beaten good teams, they have been consistently competitive in those games. Regardless, beating teams outside the eight every time you play them is a pretty good recipe to play finals, and their team should be far too talented to miss out.

Bet on the Bulldogs to make the top 8 at $1.03 with PlayUp

The reigning Premiers have not been at their absolute best this season, but it’s a testament to how good they are that average form for them still yielded 9 wins from their first 11 games. A couple of losses followed, but that 9-2 start still put them in a position from which it would be really difficult to make finals. They don’t have the easiest run home and given that 14 wins could be needed to make the 8 this year, they’ve still got some work to do, though while I certainly wouldn’t want to back them at $1.04 they should be making the 8 and potentially the top 4.

Bet on the Lions to make the top 8 at $1.04 with PlayUp 

In a season which they entered with plenty of expectation, the Hawks’ spot in the finals was far from assured at 7-5. It’s still not guaranteed, but three impressive wins on the trot after that point certainly made it very likely. They look like they are coming into form at the right time of the year, though like the above teams they are very short in the top 8 betting market.

Bet on the Hawks to make the top 8 at $1.08 with PlayUp 

At long, long last, the Suns look like they are going to play finals. Of course, we’ve been here before; many a time they’ve started a season positively only to crumble as it went on and miss the eight. But this looks like the best incarnation of the Gold Coast we have seen. With an extra game up their sleeve and a relatively good draw, they should be making the first finals series in club history, but given they have just been hovering on the edge of the eight for some time, they look way too short in this market for me and could be value in the alternative ‘to miss the top 8 market’.

Bet on the Suns to make the top 8 at $1.10 with PlayUp

The Dockers looked like they might be in for another disappointing season a couple of months ago, but six consecutive wins has certainly changed that. This isn’t a team that ever really sets the world on fire, but they have always been a strong defensive unit and their forward line is finally starting to look relatively potent. They’ve put themselves in a great position to play finals, but like many teams, they’ll probably be right on the cusp of the eight for the rest of the season.

Bet on the Dockers to make the top 8 at $1.20 with PlayUp

Now we’re starting to get to the teams with at least a little bit of value. The Giants are an interesting team in that, of the runaway top 9, they are clearly the least favoured to make the finals, but they are shorter than numerous other teams in the AFL Premiership betting. In other words, if they make it they’re capable of doing damage, but they haven’t been playing all that well for much of the season. But quality wins in Round 15 and 16 appeared to indicate a turnaround in form, and with a decent run home I like their chances of making it more than some others who are at much less attractive odds.

Bet on the Giants to make the top 8 at $1.65 with PlayUp 

It’s strange to think that more than halfway through last season, the Swans were heads and shoulders above the rest of the competition. They haven’t been even a shadow of that side in Dean Cox’s first season in charge, though they have admittedly had a lot of injuries to pivotal players. Those injuries have highlighted a lack of depth, but with Errol Gulden returning they look a lot more potent in the midfield while Tom Papley and Joel Amartey have provided some much-needed stability up forward. They are a long way back and have put themselves in a really difficult position, but they’re capable of having a strong last couple of months of the season. It’s a long shot, but they’re not totally out of it and their odds look juicy.

Bet on the Swans to make the top 8 at $13.00 with PlayUp 

There’s no two ways around it; the Blues have simply not been very good this season. The lack of depth beyond their top-end talent has long been an issue, but this year it’s been compounded by many members of that top tier either being injured, or not playing at their best. They bounced back to some extent from an 0-4 start, but a loss to North in Round 15 and then a thumping at the hands of Port the next week looks to have stamped their papers. Still, at the time of writing they’re ahead of Sydney and I gave them a chance, didn’t I, so maybe all hope is not lost. The way they’re playing, however, it’s hard to see the Blues making a run.

Bet on the Blues to make the top 8 at $26.00 with PlayUp

Interestingly, the Power are the best-placed of these last three teams at the time of writing, and yet they have the longest AFL top 8 betting odds. A look at their draw, however, and it’s easy to see why. The Power play predominantly top 8 sides over the coming weeks; in some ways they could see that as a positive given that every win they can muster during that time results in a loss to a team they’re trying to chase down. But they would have to play some incredibly good footy to get near the top 8. As far as $34 chances go they’re not the worst and a couple of upsets would see their circumstances change pretty quickly, but I wouldn’t count on that happening.

Bet on the Power to make the top 8 at $34.00 with PlayUp

There are already a handful of sides who betting sides have all but conceded will be playing finals footy, leaving just a couple of spots available for the rest. There’s really no point in betting on any of the top 8 teams in this market at the moment, with each of them paying $1.20 or less at the time of writing.

Of the odds-on teams, the Giants are the only team worth considering at $1.65, and with some good form behind them expect those odds to continue to shorten. If you’re happy to bet on a short-priced team then they are your best bet, but of the real outsiders, the Swans are the best bet. They are a long way back and probably won’t make it, but they’re just starting to find something and could give themselves at least a puncher’s chance. At $13, that’s all you need.

The top 8 market is always an interesting one, with a lot of teams always paying well under $2 to make it. These are some things to keep in mind for this specific market. 

• Things change: While every season there are cries a few rounds in of ‘Is the top 8 already set!?!’, it almost never is. Just because a team is playing well now doesn’t make them a lock, particularly a long way out from finals, and vice versa, in such an equal competition there are generally a few stragglers capable of turning things around. 
• Beware the short odds: Very rarely is it worth betting on really, really short-priced favourites, and this is one particular market where they’re worth avoiding. Take a look at the Suns, for example, who have never played finals, are just barely on the edge and yet are paying $1.10 – not worth it. 
• Factor in percentage: Percentage is obviously pivotal in that it separates teams that finish with the same win/loss record at season’s end, but more than that it’s also generally a good indicator of how a team is performing beyond how many wins they have, and is often a sign of things to come.

As mentioned above, the top 8 is always changing. The below table is indicative of that. In it, I’ve outlined the biggest risers and fallers from the last two seasons, looking specifically at every team that was in the top 8 after Round 12 – about halfway through the year – and missed the finals, as well as every team that jumped into the 8 having been outside it halfway through the year. As you can see, it happens a lot!