AFL 2025 Least Wins Wooden Spoon Betting – Odds, Tips & Predictions

The race for the Wooden Spoon is not one that anyone particularly wants to be involved in, though finishing the year at the bottom of the ladder does at least have one major benefit in the form of the number one draft pick. In recent years it’s been the domain of the Kangaroos and Eagles, though the Tigers have gradually taken the place of the Roos over the past couple of seasons and finished bottom last year. Bottom spot appears almost certain to go to either the Tigers or Eagles this season, and on this page we’ll take a look at their Wooden Spoon betting odds, as well as those of the rest of the teams still in the market.

The name would suggest this is a relatively straightforward market to understand, though there are a couple of wrinkles to be aware of. Different betting sites name this differently; some will say ‘Least Wins’, some will say ‘Wooden Spoon’ and others will say ‘Most Losses’.

Wooden Spoon doesn’t need any further explanation – it’s simply who finishes last’ – though ‘Least Wins’ is often accompanied by a stipulation that in the event of two teams finishing equal on wins, the team which finishes lower will be paid out on – meaning it’s exactly the same as the Wooden Spoon market.

‘Most Losses’, however, can be subtly different. Some betting sites, most notably Bet365, use this instead of ‘Least Wins’, which is technically subtly different. Theoretically a team could finish bottom with less losses than another team if that team had a couple of draws, which would throw a real spanner in the works in this market, though that is extremely unlikely in reality.  

As you can see below, it’s a pretty one-sided (or two-sided, I suppose) Coleman Medal betting market at the minute, with the Eagles the short-priced favourites and the Tigers way ahead in second.

After winning only ten total games across the last three years, Eagles fans would be right to expect to be on the improve by now. Unfortunately, the first 15 games of 2025 delivered much of the same if not worse, with just a solitary win to their name to leave them square in bottom spot once again.

Andrew McQualter has, as expected, had a rough start to life as a head coach in the west, and there are no signs that will change anytime soon. The Eagles are not completely without young talent, but considering how long they’ve been at the bottom they’re not exactly overflowing with it either, and Harley Reid seemingly likely to move back to Melbourne at the end of the season certainly isn’t ideal – though they should get a bounty in return for him.

The Eagles have, at least been somewhat competitive in recent weeks, though it’s a low bar they’ve set for themselves. They still find themselves a couple of games in arrears of their nearest competitor, so given they’d have to triple their win tally over the remainder of the season to have a chance of getting out of bottom spot, it’s easy to see why they’re so short in the Wooden Spoon betting market. They will likely end up in last spot, but at those odds they might be worth avoiding. 

Bet on the Eagles to win the Wooden Spoon @ $1.14 with PlayUp 

Adem Yze’s second year in charge of the Tigers was never going to be easy, with the team going all out in their rebuild by trading away a number of their better players – some by choice, some not so much. Few would question their strategy and the haul they got in the 2024 draft looks excellent, but season 2025 always looked likely to be tough.

Not that it’s been a walk in the park, but they have exceeded the expectations of just about everyone. It started with the incredible come-from-behind win in Round 1 against the Blues and nine games in they found themselves at 3-6, though a couple of close losses followed that and the wheels have started to fall off since.

A 3-point loss to the Giants really seemed to rattle them after they were brilliant all day only to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and three big losses that followed suggested the season is beginning to feel long for this young group. They’ve still got a couple of winnable games and could easily get to five wins or so, but on the flip side it’s feasible they don’t win another game. If they lose their clash with West Coast in Round 19 they’ll likely shorten significantly in the Wooden Spoon betting, and in a market without many options they potentially look like the best value bet on the table.

Bet on the Tigers to win the Wooden Spoon @ $4.75 with PlayUp

The Kangaroos, slowly but surely, look to be on the improve. Most people expected that from them this year, so when they found themselves at 1-7 and having put in numerous uncompetitive performances, there were plenty of concerned Roos fans.

But a draw with the Lions the next week appeared to be a turning point, and since then they’ve put in a multitude of impressive performances. Importantly, it’s also yielded a few wins, and with 4 as well as a draw to their name at the time of writing, they should be safe from the Wooden Spoon.

A disastrous 85-point loss to the Hawks in Round 16 was an uncharacteristic one, and they do have some tough games to come. Even if they lose every game for the rest of the season, however – and that is not likely – It’s hard to see the Eagles catching. 

Bet on the Kangaroos to win the Wooden Spoon @ $151.00 with PlayUp

Below, we take a look at the rest of the teams that find themselves in the back half of the ladder. 

Giving up a 41-point lead to lose to the Tigers was not an ideal start to the season. The Blues have have played some decent games, as any team with their top end talent should, but they’ve got work to do to get in the finals mix. A loss to the Kangaroos in Round 15 really stung, and they followed it up with an insipid performance against the Power the next week to likely stamp their papers for season 2025. But disappointing as they may have been, they’re well clear of the bottom couple of stragglers. 

The Bombers once again find themselves in football purgatory, though they have at least uncovered some young talent this year, with the likes of Zach Reid and Nate Caddy locking down spots at either end of the field. They’ve at least got the ability to put together strong periods of play that was perhaps missing in past years, though how far this list can really go remains to be seen. As for 2025, they’re not good enough to play finals, but they’re too good to fall all the way down to the bottom of the ladder, too. 

The Dees were hoping they could prove last year was an anomaly, but they’ve failed to do so. With three wins in a row to get them to 5-6 Demons fans were perhaps developing a little hope, but it was snuffed out as quickly as it appeared with three consecutive losses. Their best players are still very good, but the team overall is just not cutting the mustard. They’re not the worst team out there, but a 5-10 record after 15 games had them well out of the finals picture, though also still well clear of the Eagles. 

Ken Hinkley’s last season at the helm of the Power didn’t start well and had plenty calling for the early handover to incoming coach Josh Carr, but after falling to 4-7 they have begun to right the ship. Convincing wins over the Giants, Demons and Blues within a four-week span made them the closest team to the runaway top nine and still in with an outside chance of playing finals, and it’s safe to say that they won’t be going near the bottom of the ladder.

The Saints have made the middle parts of the ladder their home for some time now, though they’re slipping towards its lower reaches this year. This is just a team with a distinct lack of identity, and while the likes of Nasaiah Wanganeen-Milera have given them a much-needed bit of bounce of half back, they’re still too slow and predictable. Their season has got worse as 2025 has progressed and they tumbled all the way to 15th after three straight losses in June, and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if they had a pretty meek end to the season. If you wanted to be on an absolutely rank outsider they could at least provide some entertainment, but it’s almost impossible to see the Eagles getting to the five wins the Saints already have.

Dean Cox’s first season in charge has by and large been a disappointment. After a Grand Final appearance last year, the Swans fell off a cliff in the first half of the season, dropping to 4-8 halfway through it. Their lack of depth in particular parts of the field, most notably their forward line, have been exposed through injury, but the return of some key players – most notably Errol Gulden – has them looking a hell of a lot sharper as we enter July. Don’t be surprised to see them make a sneaky run over the last couple of months of the home and away season and even give themselves a chance to play finals, and they certainly won’t be anywhere near bottom spot.

The Wooden Spoon betting market is not the most complicated out there – hint: pick the bad teams. But there are a couple of important tips to remember when betting on this market.

• Motivation: Tanking is a naughty word in the AFL world, but the reality is that there are, at times, teams that aren’t particularly bothered about winning and who would quite happily finish on the bottom of the ladder and get the number one pick. It feels as though this has become a little less common – or at least talked about – but it’s still important to factor in whether you think a team is deliberately bottoming out, or still trying to win when they can. 
• Fixturing: We all know the AFL fixture is not particularly equal, and particularly as we get towards the pointy end of the season it can become very relevant in the Wooden Spoon market. As an example, we know the Eagles aren’t going to be competitive against most teams, but with a couple of moderately winnable games in the run home – most notably one against the team they’re the best chance of catching – there is at least some prospect of them winning a game or two. 
• Percentage: Aside from the fact that percentage determines who finishes bottom if two sides finish with the same records, it’s also generally a great indicator of where a team should be sitting. Interestingly, last year was the first time since way back in 2010 that the team with the lowest percentage didn’t finish last – and even then, the Tigers’ percentage was only 0.2% lower than the next worst team.

So with all that analysis out of the way, let’s get down to it. It’s a funny old market with one raging hot favourite, a clear second and then a bunch of rank outsiders, so these are our tips in a few different categories.

Top Prediction – It has to be the Eagles, doesn’t it? With one win from their first 15 games, they’re up against it to even get to the number of wins that everyone else had over a month ago.

Close Contender – As the odds suggest, the next best chance is very clearly the Tigers. Even though they’re only a game and a half back from the Roos at the time of writing, those two teams appear to be trending in opposite directions.

Dark Horse Pick – It would take an extraordinary run of events – most notably the Eagles winning a bunch of games – for the Saints to finish bottom, but of all the rank outsiders they’re in the worst form.

Final Verdict: 
The layout of the ladder makes it tough to find value in this market. As alluring as the long odds of many teams may look, they’re long for a reason, while in the case of the Eagles they’re just too short to justify betting on, particularly given they still have a game against the Tiges to come. So we’ll settle in the middle. The Eagles will likely finish bottom, but the Tigers aren’t out of the race for last place and are the better value selection.