NRL 2025 Finals Week One – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

After 27 rounds and 204 games, the NRL finals have arrived. As expected, the Roosters snatched the final spot with a resounding win over the Rabbitohs to set up an intriguing clash with the Sharks, while higher up the ladder, the Broncos well and truly earned their spot in the top four with a hard-fought win over the Storm. The finals will kick off on Friday night at AAMI Park when the Storm host the Bulldogs, before the Panthers head to New Zealand to take on the Warriors prior to the Roosters vs Sharks clash on Saturday, and the weekend’s action concludes on Sunday in the nation’s capital when the Raiders host the Broncos. Below, you can check out the NRL tips for the week from our rugby league expert at Australianbettingsites for every game in the first week of the finals.

Odds provided by Playup

• Date: Friday, 12th of September
• Kick off: 7.50pm AEST
• Venue: AAMI Park, Melbourne
• Broadcast info: Channel Nine, 9Now, Fox League

Bookmaker	Storm Odds	Bulldogs Odds
	$1.52	$2.55
	$1.52	$2.55
	$1.51	$2.60

Match Analysis

The finals kick off with a Qualifying Final between a team which could hardly be more accustomed to them, and another in completely unchartered waters. The Storm have only failed to make the top four three times in the past 20 years, and for most of this season have been the comfortable Premiership favourite with betting sites. A couple of losses on the eve of the finals, however, have seen them lose that title to the Raiders – not that they’ll be too concerned about that. Last week’s loss to the Broncos after being thumped by the Roosters the week prior is far from the ideal tune-up to the finals, and their woes have been compounded by Ryan Papenhuyzen suffering a concussion last weekend, meaning he will join Jahrome Hughes on the sideline.

The Bulldogs, meanwhile, could potentially be boosted by the surprise return of Jacob Kiraz, who they will be hoping will help to provide a much-needed turnaround in form. They spent much of the season sitting on top of the ladder, but over the past month or so have not played like a top four team, let alone one capable of winning the flag. They’ve lost four of their last six games, and while it’s not been the easiest of fixtures, they’ve nonetheless failed to play at a level that will get them far in the finals.

Neither of these teams comes into this game in good form, but for the Storm that bad run has been confined to the last fortnight – something which can’t be said for the Bulldogs. It was just a few weeks ago that these two teams met in Melbourne and the visitors went relatively close – ultimately losing 20-14 – and they will potentially be boosted by Kiraz’s return while the Storm lose Papenhuyzen. But while those ins and outs might favour the Bulldogs, their form over an extended period is concerning, and the Storm in Melbourne is about as tough a prospect as there is in the NRL. Expect a hard-fought contest, but the home team should be too strong.

Expert Tip

Storm -4.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365

The Storm are rarely beaten on their home turf, and the Bulldogs have been struggling for some time now.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Storm 7+ @ $2.12 with PlayUp
• Under 38.5 total match points @ $1.90 with EliteBet

• Date: Saturday, 13th of September
• Kick off: 4.05pm AEST
• Venue: Go Media Stadium, Auckland
• Broadcast info: Channel Nine, 9Now, Fox League

Bookmaker	Warriors Odds	Panthers Odds
	$3.55	$1.30
	$3.50	$1.31
	$3.50	$1.31

Match Analysis

The Warriors might have spent the whole season above the Panthers on the ladder, and will host this game, but they will nonetheless enter it as pretty significant underdogs. And for good reason, too; their sparkling start to the season is long forgotten, and since mid-June their record is just 4-7. That stretch of 11 games, incidentally, began when they lost by ten points to the Panthers, which is right around the line set by betting apps for this game too.

In stark contrast to the Warriors, the Panthers have had to work their way back from a really poor start to the year, but they’ve looked a lot more like the team that has won the last four Premierships over the past four months and are the most dangerous team outside the top four. Their charge towards the top four ended a couple of weeks ago with consecutive four-point losses to the top two teams, but they tuned themselves up nicely for the finals with a big 40-20 win over the Dragons last weekend.

Though these two teams ended the year with similar records, the gap between the two of them is sizeable. While the Warriors are typically a much better side in New Zealand, they’ve been struggling everywhere they play for some time now and their home ground advantage is not likely to be enough to bridge the gap between these sides. The Panthers have as much big game experience as any team in the league, and can begin their tilt at a 5th straight flag with a comfortable win.

Expert Tip

Panthers -9.5 @ $1.90 with PlayUp

The Panthers have another gear to go to in the finals, and should be much too good for the struggling Warriors.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Warriors under 16.5 total match points @ $1.80 with Bet365
• Panthers 13+ @ $2.20 with PlayUp

• Date: Saturday, 13th of September
• Kick off: 7.50pm AEST
• Venue: Sharks Stadium, Sydney
• Broadcast info: Channel Nine, 9Now, Fox League

Bookmaker	Sharks Odds	Roosters Odds
	$2.05	$1.77
	$1.95	$1.87
	$2.04	$1.80

Match Analysis

Saturday’s second Elimination Final is another in which the visiting team will enter as favourites, though not nearly as resoundingly as in the previous. The Sharks have had a fairly soft draw over the past few weeks, but they’ve made the most of it with seven wins from their past eight games – including a big one against the Roosters. They’ve also won their last three by an average of just under 25 points, including an 18-point defeat of the Bulldogs last weekend. Unfortunately for them, their opponents come into this game in form which has been just as good, if not better.

The Roosters have won five of their last six games, but it’s the nature of those victories which has been most impressive. They’ve won them by an average of just a tick under 30 points, with all but one coming against teams either in or on the brink of finals. A month ago they beat the Bulldogs by 20, while their last two wins have each been by 30 points – the first of which was against the Storm. That form was needed to get them into the finals, and now that they’re here they are very capable of causing plenty of damage.

This shapes up as a really entertaining game, with the loser probably unlucky to be booted from the finals so early given the respective form of both teams. But while they’ve both been playing like teams capable of going deep into the finals, the Sharks haven’t had as many stern tests as the Roosters, who have been knocking off some very good teams with relative ease. Last time these two teams met the Sharks were too good, but the Roosters are playing like a team possessed and can flip that result to make their way through to a semi-final.

Expert Tip

Roosters to win @ $1.82 with Bet365

This should be a quality game, but the Roosters are hard to tip against right now.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Roosters to win by 1-12 @ $3.25 with Bet365
• Over 46.5 total match points @ $1.91 with Bet365

• Date: Sunday, 14th of September
• Kick off: 4.05pm AEST
• Venue: GIO Stadium, Canberra
• Broadcast info: Channel Nine, 9Now, Fox League

Bookmaker	Raiders Odds	Broncos Odds
	$1.70	$2.15
	$1.68	$2.20
	$1.69	$2.20

Match Analysis

Show me someone saying that the Raiders finishing on top of the ladder was on their bingo card entering this season, and I’ll show you a liar. Far more likely in the eyes of most was a bottom-placed finish, with the team from the nation’s capital close to the top in a Wooden Spoon market which was admittedly wide open. But full credit to them, they have been brilliant, with last week’s loss to the Dolphins in which they rested most of their stars just their second out of their last 15. The finals have been a long time coming, and now that they’re here it will be fascinating to see if they can continue to play at the same level.

Their opposition certainly won’t make it easy for them. The Broncos have had a terrific second half of the season, winning 10 of their last 12 games to skyrocket into fourth place and earn the double chance. They entered the last round in 4th spot, but with the Storm waiting for them they were far from guaranteed of retaining it. But they were fantastic in a game which turned out to be an ideal warm-up for the finals, beating the Storm 30-14 to hang onto the double chance on points difference alone.

Both of these teams have barely lost a game for near on three months, which makes tipping against either of them a hard task. Worth noting is that the Raiders are an impressive 11-1 on their home turf, but finals is a different ball game. Not for five years have they had any sort of expectation on their shoulders entering the finals, and they enter this game against a team in brilliant form and with very good players struggling to even force their way into the team. This one could easily go down to the wire, but the Broncos are a great chance to sneak over the line as the underdog.

Expert Tip

Broncos to win @ $2.20 with EliteBet

This isn’t an easy game to tip, but the Broncos might be the value bet.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Broncos +2.5 @ $1.87 with EliteBet
• Broncos 1-12 @ $3.40 with Bet365

• Storm -4.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365 – The Storm might have lost their last couple of games, but they are a team that is built for finals and capable of stepping things up a notch when they need to. They are not easy to beat in Melbourne at the best of time but that’s exacerbated during finals; last year they won their two home finals by 27 and 30 points. With the Bulldogs in average form, the Storm could win this quite comfortably.
• Panthers -9.5 @ $1.90 with PlayUp – They might have finished side by side on the ladder, but the seasons of the Panthers and Warriors could hardly be more different and the gap between the two is significant. The Warriors have not even been a finals quality team for the past 2-3 months while the Panthers have looked as good as anyone for the most part, and in the type of game in which they have no shortage of experience, the class of the visitors should shine through.
• Warriors under 16.5 total match points @ $1.80 with Bet365 – Sticking with the same game, we turn our focus now to the Warriors’ total. Courtesy largely of their slow start to the season, the Panthers’ win/loss record paled in comparison this year to in seasons past, but defensively they were still very sound, conceding the 3rd least points in the league. Defence has been the cornerstone of their dominance in recent years, and that relentless pressure is where they often take things up a level in finals. Expect them to make this game an absolute grind, and a Warriors’ team in poor form might struggle to find the scoreboard too often against the might of the four-time reigning Premiers.

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