Expert NRL tips and match previews for every game of semi-final weekend

The first week of the NRL finals series delivered a couple of memorable finishes, beginning with the Storm’s late burst to beat the Bulldogs and ending with an extraordinary, 93-minute game which ended with a one-point win for the Broncos over the Raiders. Elsewhere, the Warriors and Roosters had their seasons ended by the Panthers and Sharks respectively, setting up a couple of intriguing semi-finals this weekend. Take a look below at the NRL tips for the week from our rugby league expert at Australianbettingsites for both games taking place this weekend.

Odds provided by Playup

• Date: Saturday, 20th of September 
• Kick off: 7.50pm AEST 
• Venue: GIO Stadium, Canberra 
• Broadcast info: Channel Nine, 9Now, Fox League  

Bookmaker	Raiders Odds	Sharks Odds
	$1.52	$2.55
	$1.52	$2.55
	$1.55	$2.50

Match Analysis

The Raiders have had a phenomenal year, finishing on top of the ladder after entering it tipped by most to finish closer to the bottom of the ladder. But come finals, that all counts for nought, and for all their hard work they are now on the brink of a straight sets elimination after losing to the Broncos last weekend. 

Despite the loss, they weren’t exactly overawed by the bright lights of the finals. The Raiders played very well for three-quarters of the game, opening up an 18-12 lead at half time and extending that to 28-12 with 20 minutes to go. How they managed to lose from there is a question that will be haunting them; the Broncos scored three tries in seven minutes to get back into it before a Reece Walsh penalty goal on the brink of the final whistle sent the game to Golden Point, and 13 minutes later Ben Hunt scored the winning point. It was a heartbreaking result for the Raiders, but they can ill-afford to spend too much time dwelling on it, because the in-form Sharks are ready and willing to send them spiralling out of the finals. 

Cronulla entered the finals on the back of seven wins in eight games, but many – yours truly included – expected the Roosters to get past them in their Elimination Final. But in a tightly contested game, a Ronaldo Mulitalo double in the last five minutes of the first half ultimately proved the difference. That saw them go from 4-0 down to 12-4 up, and though an Angus Crichton try in the 47th minute got the Roosters to within a score, the home team was able to lock in and prevent any more opposition scores, and closed out the game with a Toby Rudolf try in the 75th minute. 

The Sharks are now at nearly three months with just a single loss to their name, so the Raiders clearly can’t afford to take them lightly. But while they’ve now lost two games in a row, they’ve been pretty tough to beat for some time themselves. Since May the Raiders had lost just a single game prior to these two losses, the first of which can be ignored given they’d rested half their team, while last week they were the better team for the bulk of the game despite the end result. They finished top of the ladder for a reason, and should be expecting to atone for a disappointing loss last weekend and end the Sharks’ season in the process.   

Expert Tip

Raiders -5.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365 

Prior to last week’s game, the Raiders had won 11 of 12 games at home this year, all but two of which were by more than the line set by betting sites.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Over 46.5 total match points @ $1.88 with PlayUp 
• Raiders/Raiders half-time/full-time double @ $2.05 with PlayUp

• Date: Sunday, 21st of September 
• Kick off: 4.05pm AEST 
• Venue: Accor Stadium, Sydney 
• Broadcast info: Channel Nine, 9Now, Fox League

Bookmaker	Bulldogs Odds	Panthers Odds
	$3.40	$1.32
	$3.40	$1.33
	$3.40	$1.33

Match Analysis

It’s not often that the away team heads into a semi-final as the comfortable favourite, but that’s exactly what will happen in this game. The Bulldogs finished four spots higher than the Panthers and won an extra three games, and will of course technically be the ‘home’ team in this one, but the Panthers are clearly no ordinary 7th placed team.  

As expected, they took care of business against the Warriors last weekend, though they were made to work for it. With 15 minutes to go the Panthers led by less than a single score, but their ability to take their game to another level when it matters most has been a hallmark of their four consecutive Premiers, and they once again rose to the occasion with two tries in quick succession to eventually run out 24-8 winners. 

The Bulldogs faced a sterner test, heading to AAMI Park to take on the Storm, and while they ultimately went down, they didn’t lose any fans in the loss. They went into half-time just two points down – the returning Jacob Kiraz responsible for one of their two tries – before taking the lead via Matt Burton in the 57th minute. But the Storm, like the Panthers, know when to take things up a notch, and they did exactly that with two tries in the last 15 minutes to snare an eight-point win and book a slot in yet another Preliminary Final. 

Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, they lost more than just that game last Friday night. Adding to their woes was a foot injury to captain Stephen Crichton which may well end his season and will certainly see him miss this game, while Enari Tuala’s season is definitely finished after breaking his leg. A rampaging Panthers’ team is a hard enough task at the best of time, but a couple of injuries to key players will make things very hard. 

They are, admittedly, at very long odds on the betting apps given they served it right up to the Storm last weekend, and the Panthers look far too short to justify as an NRL tip this week – at least as an outright winner. But they are going to be extremely difficult to beat for anyone, particularly a Bulldogs team which has been struggling for some time and will be severely hampered by injuries this weekend. I’ll be staying away from the Panthers head-to-head, but like them to win this one by a smaller margin against the Bulldogs.   

Expert Tip

Panthers -1-12 @ $2.90 with PlayUp

The Panthers should be too good, but the Bulldogs’ odds are a little too long for my liking.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Under 39.5 total match points @ $1.89 with EliteBet 
• Bulldogs to score 3+ tries – No @ $1.93 with PlayUp 

Check out some of my best NRL tips for the weekend’s action below. 

• Raiders -5.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365 – The Raiders have been in the best couple of teams all season long, and at home have been tougher to beat than anyone. The Sharks are a good team in some really strong form, but they haven’t been beating teams of the quality of the Raiders. This is a pretty short line for the home team in the nation’s capital, and they should be able to cruise past it to book a spot in the prelims. 
• Panthers to win by 1-12 @ $2.90 with PlayUp – Betting sites have set the Panthers’ line at 9.5, which is pretty high considering that the Bulldogs, despite their injuries, are a very good team. That opens the door for some value on a closer game, with nearly $3 available with  PlayUp for the Panthers to win by under 13 points. 
• Bulldogs vs Panthers under 39.5 total match points  @ $1.89 with EliteBet – Defence has been a hallmark of the Panthers’ success in recent years, and they generally step it up a notch in finals. Last week’s game against the Warriors yielded just 32 points total, making it 11 of their 14 finals since their Premiership-winning streak began in 2021 that have yielded 40 points or less.