NRL 2025 – Best Outsiders to Make the 2025 NRL Grand Final

For the last couple of months of the season, the NRL Grand Final betting market was dominated by the Storm and the Raiders, both of whom found themselves at less than $2 to make the big dance entering the finals. But while the Storm have continued on their merry way as expected, the Raiders were knocked out in straight sets after a terrific season which saw them finish on top of the ladder. Entering Preliminary Final weekend, the Storm remain a clear favourite to make it through to another Grand Final, though their opponent in the Sharks are in some pretty handy form. Sunday’s prelim is expected to be a little closer, but the Panthers are favoured despite the scintillating form of the Broncos. Of course, with just these prelims separating these four teams from a Grand Final berth, the outsiders to make the last day of the season are just the underdogs in these two games, and on this page we’ll take a look at whether either of them have a chance of defying the NRL Grand Final betting odds.

The Broncos endured an up and down start to the year, and following four consecutive losses between Rounds 9 and 13, found themselves at 5-7 and well outside the top eight. Since then, however, they have hardly put a foot wrong. The Broncos have lost just two more games since, with a 10-2 run into the finals seeing them jump inside the top four just in the nick of time.

That earned them a matchup with the Raiders, who finished top, and while the team from the nation’s capital had only lost a solitary game in Canberra all year, that was probably a preferable fixture to what they would have been dealt had they finished a spot higher – a trip to AAMI Park to face on the Storm. Still, beating the Raiders in Canberra has proved virtually impossible all year, but in a 93-minute thriller the Broncos managed to get up by a point to advance through to the Preliminary Finals.

Now, they enter the penultimate week of the season on the back of five consecutive wins – the last two of which have been against the two teams that occupied positions one and two on the ladder – playing at Suncorp Stadium, and with a bunch of star players set to return to the team this weekend. They could hardly be better placed, and yet still, they enter the game as underdogs – the reason being, of course, their opposition. 

The Panthers have got better and better as the season has progressed, overcoming a surprise 1-5 start to very nearly make their way into the top four. They fell just short – nothing to be too ashamed of given that start – but as expected, they’ve taken their game to another level in the finals, beating first the Warriors by 16 and then last week the Bulldogs by 20, a margin that could easily have been much more.

The Broncos will still feel confident about their chances given how well they are playing and the players likely returning to their team, and at well over $2 with Aussie betting sites they are not without a chance. But there is no denying the sense of undeniability about the Panthers – inevitable for a team which has won four consecutive Premierships. Still, as far as the two outsiders to make the Grand Final go, the Broncos look the far more likely to cause an upset – they are in form, at home, and have a bone to pick with their opposition following the 2023 Grand Final which will no doubt be fresh in their mind. I’ll be backing the Panthers to advance through to yet another Grand Final, but the Broncos aren’t without a chance and are the better bet of the two outsiders.

Bet on the Broncos to make the Grand Final @ $2.30 with Elitbet

The Sharks have made a habit of disappointing in finals. Despite having made 11 of the last 13 prior to this season, they’d advanced to a prelim on just three of those occasions and a Grand Final just once – though they did, at least, salute that year. Still, more often than not they’ve been knocked out in the first couple of weeks, and that looked very much on the cards this year too.

Haven’t they proven the doubters wrong? Faced with a stern test in their Elimination Final against the in-form Roosters, they won 20-10 to advance through to a semi-final in which they were an even heavier underdog than the previous week. Again, they defied the betting apps with a dominant 32-12 win over the team that finished on top of the ladder, setting up a date with the Storm at AAMI Park.

Never is that an easy task, but there is no denying just how good the Sharks have been for some time now. They came home like a freight train with seven wins in their last eight games of the regular season to lock up a finals spot, and with two wins in the finals they’ve now got a 9-1 record harking back to June. Interestingly, the last game prior to this run of form starting was against the Storm in Melbourne – the Sharks lost that one 30-6.

As good as their form might be, however, AAMI Park is not a place that visiting teams win very often, particularly in finals. In fact, in the last decade, the Storm are an impressive 11-2 at AAMI Park in finals, the only side having beaten them there in that time being the Raiders. The Sharks have been on the receiving end of a couple of those defeats, including last year, when the Storm pumped them 37-10 in a Qualifying Final.

That doesn’t auger particularly well for the visitors, but of course history is just that and this is a new game on a new day. Any team which has won nine of its last ten deserves to be taken seriously, particularly given the quality of those last two wins, and the Storm can’t afford to be too far from their best if they want to win this. Unfortunately for the Sharks, they rarely have been this season. As impressive as they’ve been in the finals, making the Grand Final for the first time since 2016 is going to be a tough ask for the Sharks.

Bet on the Sharks to make the Grand Final @ $3.15 with ElitBet

The favourites heading into Preliminary Final weekend to win their way through to the Grand Final are favourites for good reason, with the Storm having enjoyed a terrific season and the Panthers building momentum as it has worn on in pursuit of their fifth consecutive Premiership. Having said that, neither of them is guaranteed a spot in the big dance, both taking on teams that have rarely lost for the past two or three months.

The Broncos have won 11 of their past 13 and the Sharks 9 of their last 10, so while they have stiff opposition this weekend, both will fancy their chances of causing an upset. But impressive as the Sharks have been, beating the Storm in Melbourne is going to be incredibly difficult. Knocking off the Panthers will be no mean feat either, but the Broncos are at home and will field as good a side as they have in some time with a number of key inclusions set to make their way onto the team sheet for the game. Of the two smokies to make the Grand Final entering the penultimate weekend of the year, even at much shorter odds, they look like the better NRL Grand Final bet.

As we all know, betting isn’t just about picking who you think will win; it’s about finding the best value. These NRL Grand Final betting tips are about exactly that, and these are some tips to keep in mind while doing it.

• High ceiling, low floor: When betting on outsiders, it’s important to reflect on the ceiling of a team. After all, they’re outsiders for a reason, but if that reason is that they are consistently a rung or two below the teams they need to beat, that’s probably not going to change. In contrast, if they’re a little erratic, mixing in some bad performances with some very good ones, their chances of overperforming (or underperforming) are a lot higher.
• Top-end talent: When it comes to winning important games, top-end talent plays a big role. As much as teams will spout the team mentality, and obviously the overall ability of a team is pivotal, having individuals capable of brilliance can be the difference in September. Clearly he’s on another level, but you only need to look at Nathan Cleary’s 2023 Grand Final performance to see how much impact one player can have. Teams with elite talent at the top-end are always going to be capable of springing a surprise.