NRL 2025 – Best Outsiders to Make the 2025 NRL Grand Final

The Panthers have had a stronghold on one of the two Grand Final positions up for grabs this season, but their slow start to the season means the race to the Big Dance looks a little more open than it has in previous years. The Storm are the only odds-on team to make it, but outside of them there are numerous teams that could potentially be good value to make it all the way through to the last day of the season – the Panthers one of them. Let’s take a look at some of the best value teams in the 2025 NRL Grand Final betting market to make it through.

Admittedly the term outsiders is a little generous given they are currently second favourite in the market, but the Bulldogs’ odds to make the Grand Final suggest they’re still more likely than not to miss out, so we’re including. Their season has been fantastic from the get go, with 11 wins from their first 13 games locking them away in the top two. If they can secure a top two spot they can make the Grand Final without having to leave home, and given how good they are that would make them close to an odds-on proposition to make it.

Bet on the Bulldogs to make the Grand Final @ $2.60 with Bet365

The Panthers ballooned out in this market, and justifiably so, after a dreadful start to the season, but they were always going to bounce back – it was just a matter of how start they made their run. As it is, they’ve put themselves in a tricky position to make the top four, but it’s still very much within their reach with a long way to go in the season. If they make it, look out, but even if they don’t they’re a chance of successfully taking the long route to the Grand Final. The odds of nearly $4 currently on offer might be the best you get for them for the rest of the season, and they look like one of the best NRL Grand Final bets.

Bet on the Panthers to make the Grand Final @ $3.75 with Bet365

The Broncos have bounced back from a disappointing 2024 with a relatively solid season to date, and are the kind of team capable of getting on a heater and making a run deep into the finals. The Broncos’ best is very good – they absolutely pummelled the Bulldogs back in April, as an example – and while much of that form is confined to Suncorp Stadium, if they can find a way to play like that all around the country they’re capable of being a pesky outsider.

Bet on the Broncos to make the Grand Final @ $5.00 with PlayUp

The Dolphins certainly didn’t look likely to be in this discussion early in the season, and even if they remain a long shot, they are putting together some brilliant footy of late. Starting with a 44-8 win over the Bulldogs, they put together an offensively unbelievable five weeks, hitting the 50-mark three times in the next month. A loss to the Knights was thrown in there, but at their best they have looked like the best team in the league. They’re not, but a team with a high ceiling is exactly what you want in an outsider. It’s hard to imagine them maintaining that kind of form all the way to a Grand Final, but with each passing week that ceiling appears to be getting higher.

Bet on the Dolphins to make the Grand Final @ $11.00 with PlayUp

The Roosters are not the dominant offensive force of yesteryear in 2025, but after their off-season they were never going to be. Despite the loss of so many key players, however, they have remained a competitive outfit and have displayed that unstoppable Roosters flair at various points this season – and it appears to be getting more common. They’ve put themselves in a good spot to play finals and will be a dangerous team once there, and while a Grand Final appearance is a long shot in every sense of the word, they’re not the worst value out there at well over $10.

Bet on the Roosters to make the Grand Final @ $15.00 with Bet365

For a team that has been comfortably embedded in the top four all season, the Warriors are at pretty long odds to make the Grand Final. But given their best player has gone down with a likely season-ending knee injury, maybe that’s understandable. It will be interesting to see how the Warriors respond without Luke Metcalf leading the way; likely they will be a worse team and their top four spot could be in jeopardy. But important as he is, they are not a one-man unit. There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Warriors at the moment, but sometimes that plays into the punter’s favour. If they can hold onto their top four spot without him, don’t expect these odds to hang around.

Bet on the Warriors to make the Grand Final @ $15.00 with Bet365

The NRL is an interesting place this season. There are a lot of decent teams capable of making the finals, but how many of them can legitimately make a finals run is another question. And as much as many people don’t want it to be true, the four-time reigning Premiers are increasingly looking like one of the best value to make it all the way to a sixth straight Grand Final. A win against the Bulldogs in a finals-like game got them closer to striking distance from the top four, and when the season is on the line we know the likes of Nathan Cleary will take it up a notch.

At much longer odds, the Dolphins are playing some ridiculously good footy and are strangely actually starting to look capable of doing some damage, so if you’re after a double-figure bet they’re worth a look, but the best bet in this market at the time of writing, to me, looks like the Panthers.

As we all know, betting isn’t just about picking who you think will win; it’s about finding the best value. These NRL Grand Final betting tips are about exactly that, and these are some tips to keep in mind while doing it.

• High ceiling, low floor: When betting on outsiders, it’s important to reflect on the ceiling of a team. After all, they’re outsiders for a reason, but if that reason is that they are consistently a rung or two below the teams they need to beat, that’s probably not going to change. In contrast, if they’re a little erratic, mixing in some bad performances with some very good ones, their chances of overperforming (or underperforming) are a lot higher.
• Top-end talent: When it comes to winning important games, top-end talent plays a big role. As much as teams will spout the team mentality, and obviously the overall ability of a team is pivotal, having individuals capable of brilliance can be the difference in September. Clearly he’s on another level, but you only need to look at Nathan Cleary’s 2023 Grand Final performance to see how much impact one player can have. Teams with elite talent at the top-end are always going to be capable of springing a surprise.