Expert NRL tips and match previews for the 2025 NRL Grand Final

What a weekend that was. As expected, the Storm made their way through to yet another Grand Final, but it was Sunday afternoon’s clash between the Broncos and the Panthers which stole the show. In a complete reversal of the extraordinary 2023 Grand Final, the Broncos this time snatched victory from the jaws of defeat after the Panthers did the same two years ago, ending the historic dynasty of the four-time reigning champs. And so, this Sunday evening will see the Storm and the Broncos go head-to-head at Accor Stadium, looking to become the first team not from Penrith to win a Premiership since 2020. Below, our Australianbettingsites’ rugby league expert dishes out his final NRL tips of the week for the decider.

Odds provided by Playup

Date: Sunday, 5th of October
Kick off: 7.30pm AEST
Venue: Accor Stadium, Sydney
Broadcast info: Channel Nine, 9Now, Fox League

Bookmaker	Storm Odds	Broncos Odds
	$1.70	$2.15
	$1.68	$2.20
	$1.72	$2.16

Match Analysis

In the NRL era, neither the Storm nor the Broncos have played any other team in the finals more than six times; the sole exception being each other. They’ve met nine times in the postseason since 1998, the bulk of those coming between 2004 and 2009 when, incredibly, they played against one another in every single finals series. Since then, however, such meetings have been a lot more rare. Last time they met in the finals was in the 2023 Qualifying Final, when the Broncos pumped the Storm 26-0, while the time before that was back in 2017 and saw the opposite result, the Storm winning that prelim 30-0 en route to a Premiership.

This weekend, they will face off in the NRL Grand Final for the first time since 2006. The Broncos won that one 15-8, but it’s the Storm who head into this one as favourites with the betting apps after a brilliant season and a couple of much easier victories on their way to the big dance than their opponents. They headed into last week’s Preliminary Final as comfortable favourites against the Sharks, and while no one would call it an easy win, they were in control throughout the course of the match, leading throughout and holding a lead in excess of a single score from the 35-minute mark.

That sits in stark contrast to the Broncos, who could hardly have enjoyed two more memorable victories if they’d written a script. After their incredible, 93rd minute win over the Raiders in the Qualifying Final, they looked for all money to be the Panthers’ latest victim last weekend, trailing 14-0 at half-time after conceding two tries to Paul Alamoti. Instead, they did what the Panthers did to them in the 2023 Grand Final, pulling a proverbial rabbit out of a hat to secure a remarkable win. It started with a Kotoni Staggs try in the 47th minute, but they remained eight points down with just over ten minutes to play. Xavier Willison got them within four in the 69th minute before Deine Mariner tied things up six minutes later, and when Adam Reynolds slotted the conversion from a tight angle it gave them a two-point lead they wouldn’t relinquish.

And so here we are; the first Broncos vs Storm Grand Final since 2006. Of course, while the Storm have continued on their merry way since then, the Broncos have done the opposite, and their lack of success compared with that of the Storm has been evidenced by an incredibly lopsided last couple of decades between the two. Incredibly, the Storm went on to win 31 of the next 35 encounters between the two, but that trend has been somewhat arrested in recent years with the Broncos winning the aforementioned 2023 Qualifying Final, and also beating them 30-14 just a few weeks ago on the eve of the finals.

The Broncos will still enter this game as underdogs, but it’s a relatively close run thing, with betting sites like Bet365 offering up to $2.20 for them to win the game early in the week. They’ll welcome back Patrick Carrigan following his one-match ban to give them virtually a full squad to choose from, and with the Storm also fully fit and firing, both sides should be at their best for the decider.

So which team’s best is better, and which team is best equipped to deal with the pressure and intensity that only a Grand Final can bring? Both teams have been there in the recent past; the Storm having lost to the Panthers last year and won back in 2020, and the Broncos having also lost to the Panthers in 2023. But there is no denying how strong the Storm have been all year. The Broncos come into this game playing as well as they have all year and riding high after a couple of absolutely thrilling wins, but as they so often are, the Storm are as well-drilled as any team in the league and just seem to have the capacity to take their game to the level they need to in order to get the job done. Led by their host of superstars, they can go one better than they did last year and secure the Premiership in what should be a very tightly contested and high-quality Grand Final.

Expert Tip

Storm to win by 1-12 @ $3.10 with Bet365

The Storm have been just about the best team all year and would be a worthy Premier, but the Broncos should give them a serious run for their money.

Alternative Bets to Consider

Under 40.5 total match points @ $1.91 with PlayUp
Storm to win by 1-5 @ $6.50 with Bet365

Below, I go into a little more detail about the above best NRL tips for this weekend’s Grand Final.

Storm to win by 1-12 @ $3.10 with Bet365 – If the Panthers have boasted an air of inevitability about them over the past few years unmatched by any other team, the Storm might be the closest thing to them this year. This is a professional, experienced and highly talented unit that consistently gets the job done when needed, as they’ve shown in their two finals to date this season. The Broncos are also a fantastic team and it's hard to see them being beaten easily, but when push comes to shove, I’m backing the Storm to sneak over the line.
Storm to win by 1-5 @ $6.50 with Bet365 – Same logic as above, but going for a little more value here. The Broncos’ two finals so far have obviously been extremely close, just three cumulative points separating them from the two teams they’ve beaten, and Grand Finals also have a tendency to be tight and low scoring; four of the last six have been decided by 6 points or less. The long odds on offer here look worth a punt.
Under 40.5 total match points @ $1.90 with PlayUp – As mentioned, NRL Grand Finals are often low-scoring, with defence generally a corner stone of the game and scoring often hard to come by as a result. The line is set relatively low at 40.5 points, but going back nearly two decades, only three of the last 17 Grand Finals have surpassed that total. Both of these teams can score, but they can both defend too, and with the intensity as high as it gets it’s hard to see either team putting up a big total.
Eliesa Katoa anytime try scorer @ $3.10 with Bet365 – Eliesa Katoa has had an excellent last couple of seasons for the Storm, with 12 tries last year just bested by the 13 he has managed in 2025. The big 2nd rower has scored a try in just about 50% of games this year, including three of his last four, and will no doubt make his hefty presence felt in a highly physical game. I’m not expecting a lot of scoring, but Katoa is the kind of player who can force his way through a robust defence, and at better than $3 he looks like great value to score a try for the Storm.