Expert NRL Tips and Match Previews for both games of Preliminary Final weekend

It’s safe to say that there have been more entertaining semi-final weekends than what we’ve just witnessed, with both the Raiders and Bulldogs failing to deliver and succumbing to 20-point defeats. But on the other end of the spectrum, both the Sharks and in particular the Panthers were brilliant, and have set up a pair of juicy Preliminary Final matchups. It begins with the Sharks heading to AAMI Park to face the Storm, a game they will enter as relatively comfortable underdogs, before the Panthers take on the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium for the second spot in this year’s Grand Final. Betting sites have the two dominant teams of the past few years in the Storm and Panthers as favourites to advance, but both games could go either way. Below, our Australianbettingsites’ rugby league expert dishes out his NRL tips for the week for both games.

Odds provided by Playup

• Date: Friday, 26th of September
• Kick off: 7.50pm AEST
• Venue: AAMI Park, Melbourne
• Broadcast info: Channel Nine, 9Now, Fox League

Bookmaker	Storm Odds	Sharks Odds
	$1.42	$2.90
	$1.44	$2.80
	$1.43	$2.90

Match Analysis

Preliminary Final appearances are a big deal for most clubs, but for the Storm they’re just about an annual occurrence. This will be their tenth in the last 11 seasons, and if they win it will be their fifth appearance in a Grand Final in that time.

It’s long felt inevitable that they would arrive at this juncture. They set up shop in the top four for virtually the entirety of the season and when they sewed up a home Qualifying Final, a spot in a prelim was just about a fait accompli. In fairness, they were challenged really strongly by the Bulldogs in that Qualifying Final and with 15 minutes to go were actually trailing by a couple of points, but they rose to the occasion in the dying stages with a pair of tries to secure an eight-point win.

The Sharks, of course, have gone the long way around after finishing 5th, but if anything that’s only helped to boost their Premiership credentials given how impressive they have been over the past two weeks. After advancing through to a semi-final with a ten-point win over a very in-form Roosters’ unit, they put in one of their best performances of the season last week. Up against a Raiders’ team which lost just one home game during the regular season, they were fantastic particularly in the second half, scoring the last three tries of the game to run out 32-12 winners.

Unlike the Storm, while the Sharks have been regulars in the finals, prelim appearances have been a little harder to come by. Despite making 11 of the last 13 finals series, they’ve made just two prelims in that time, and have just once made it through to the Grand Final.

Clearly, the Storm have the edge when it comes to serious finals game experience, and firm in their memories will also be last year’s Qualifying Final in which they pumped the Sharks at this ground by 27 points. But interestingly, Cronulla do actually have a solid recent history against their more highly fancied opponents, having split the last six games three apiece – including one win at AAMI Park.

But as does every team who heads to Melbourne to take on the Storm, the visitors will have their work cut out for them this Friday night, and it won’t be made any easier by the near-certain return of Ryan Papenhuyzen and increasingly likely addition of Jahrome Hughes to the mix. The Sharks have won five games in a row and nine of their last ten, so the Storm can certainly not afford to take them likely, but they have been the Premiership favourites all season for a reason. The Sharks might give them a nudge, but the home side looks likely to storm into yet another Grand Final.

Expert Tip

Storm -7.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365

The Sharks are a good side, but the Storm are on another level and should take things up a notch with a spot in the Grand Final on the line.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Under 40.5 total match points @ $1.91 with Bet365
• Eliesa Katoa anytime tryscorer @ $2.90 with Bet365

• Date: Sunday, 28th of September
• Kick off: 4.05pm AEST
• Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
• Broadcast info: Channel Nine, 9Now, Fox League

Bookmaker	Broncos Odds	Panthers Odds
	$2.10	$1.74
	$2.20	$1.68
	$2.12	$1.75

Match Analysis

While the Sharks are definitely capable of causing an upset, it’s the second Preliminary Final in which NRL tips are likely to be a little more divided. There is plenty in the Broncos’ favour; they are, of course, the top four team, will play this game at home and have enjoyed a much-needed week off after a thrilling, energy-sapping Qualifying Final which they won by a point in the 93rd minute against the Raiders.

On top of that, they enter this game on the back of five consecutive wins, the last two of which have been against the top two teams in the league. They will also have a host of great ins returning to the team that beat the Raiders, with each of Selwyn Cobbo, Ezra Mam, Adam Reynolds and Xavier Willison potentially returning to the fold. That they still enter this game as the underdog on the betting apps is testament to just how good the Panthers have been, as well as the five years of dominance they’ve exacted on the league in the rear-view mirror.

Though the Panthers only finished 7th, they obviously came home like a freight train and could very easily have worked their way into the top four had a couple of close games gone their way. Alas, they did not, but as expected they’ve taken their game to another level since the finals began.

After taking care of the Warriors relatively comfortable in their Qualifying Final, they came out of the blocks looking every bit like a team which has won four consecutive Grand Finals in last week’s semi against the Bulldogs. By half-time they had opened a virtually unassailable 36-8 lead, and even a comeback of sorts in the second half couldn’t prevent a lopsided final score of 46-26. Paul Alamoti was the star of the show with three tries, while Brian To’o also managed a double within the first 30 minutes of the game.

Interestingly, this will be just the fifth time these two teams have met in the finals and only the third in more than two decades, but few will have forgotten the last time they matched up in the post-season. The Panthers’ historic four consecutive flags included a two-point win over the Broncos in 2023, a game the eventual losers led 24-8 with just 20 minutes remaining before a Nathan Cleary masterclass inspired an incredible comeback.

That loss is no doubt still felt strongly by the Broncos cohort, and they will be eager to exact revenge on the team that prevented them from winning their first Premiership since 2006. But eager as they might be, the Panthers are the best team in many, many decades, and though they may have seen the departures of a few Premiership stars over the past couple of years, there remains an aura of inexorability about them, even against a team in form as strong as the Broncos.

Expect this to be an intense match-up in what will be a hostile environment for visitors, with 50,000-odd Broncos supporters making their presence felt. They have plenty of reason to feel confident given the form of their team, but for years the Panthers have simply stepped up to the level required when it matters most, and it’s hard to imagine them failing to do just that once again to advance through to an incredible sixth consecutive Grand Final, and potentially win their fifth on the trot.

Expert Tip

Panthers -1.5 @ $1.85 with PlayUp

The Panthers have won four flags in a row for a reason and can rise to the occasion once more.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Panthers 7+ @ $2.35 with PlayUp
• Under 45.5 total match points @ $1.91 with Bet365

Check out some of my best NRL tips for the weekend’s action below. 

• Storm -7.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365 – The Storm have been clinical in the finals over the past couple of years. They lost last year’s Grand Final to the Panthers, but they won their two previous finals by 30 and 27 before winning this year’s Qualifying Final by 8 over the Bulldogs. The Sharks might be in great form, but the Storm look like a good bet to cover the line set by Aussie betting sites.
• Storm vs Sharks under 40.5 total match points @ $1.91 with Bet365 – As with most good teams, the Storm’s defence is an area in which they generally step things up in the finals. Space is going to be very hard to find in this game and the Sharks in particular won’t likely put up a huge score, and the under looks like a good bet as a result.
• Eliesa Katoa anytime tryscorer @ $2.90 with Bet365 – While scoring might be hard to come by, somebody’s gotta do it, and Eliesa Katoa looks like one of the best value chances out there at nearly $3 with Bet365. The hulking 2nd rower has scored 13 tries this year and has managed one in each of his last three games, so at such long odds he’s hard to ignore.
• Panthers -1.5 @ $1.85 with PlayUp – The Broncos have been fantastic and have a host of big names returning, but the Panthers have been an unstoppable force for years. That hasn’t been the case throughout the entirety of this season, but as expected they have taken things to another level in the finals. They are going to be incredibly tough to stop in their quest for a fifth straight Premiership.

Same game multi – Storm vs Sharks