NRL 2025 Round 23 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

Just five rounds remain in the NRL season, and competition for spots in both the top 4 and the top 8 is getting extremely hot. With the Warriors woes continuing last week and the Broncos and the Panthers continuing to flex their muscles, just a game separates those three teams as well as the Sharks between 4th and 7th, while there’s also only a game between the three teams fighting for 8th in the Dolphins, Roosters and Sea Eagles. Round 23 kicks off with what should be a high-quality game between the Storm and the Broncos, setting the scene for a potentially brilliant weekend of rugby league. Later on in the weekend, the 8th placed Dolphins face the 9th placed Roosters, the 3rd placed Bulldogs host the 4th placed Warriors, while the Raiders also take on the Sea Eagles in another big game. It’s a pivotal weekend of footy, and below our rugby league expert at Australianbettingsites provides his NRL tips for the week.

Odds provided by Playup

• Date: Thursday, 7th of August
• Kick off: 7.50pm AEST
• Venue: AAMI Park, Melbourne
• Broadcast info: Channel Nine, 9Now, Fox League

Bookmaker	Storm Odds	Broncos Odds
	$1.50	$2.60
	$1.52	$2.55
	$1.50	$2.64

Match Analysis

In a round full of big games, the first one might just trump them all. The Storm, of course, have been Premiership favourites all season, and for good reason. At 14-5, they’re lodged comfortably inside the top 4 and jumped past the Bulldogs into the top 2 last weekend, though they weren’t exactly convincing in their six-point win over the Eels.

Convincing is exactly what the Broncos were in their own win, a 60-14 demolition job of the Rabbitohs which moved them to within a game of the top 4. That made it six wins from their last seven games, though unfortunately for them it’s not just the Warriors in 4th they need to catch; it’s also the seemingly unstoppable Panthers, who are on an absolute tear and sit half-a-game ahead in 5th.

The Broncos will welcome Payne Haas back into what is already a very strong team coming off a confidence-boosting win last weekend, but beating the Storm at AAMI Park is probably the toughest test in the league. The Storm lost last time they played at home surprisingly to the Sea Eagles, but them losing twice in a row in Melbourne is as rare as hen’s teeth. Expect the Broncos to put up a serious fight, but in a quality game between two very good teams, the home team can come out victorious.

Expert Tip

Storm to win by 1-12 @ $3.00 with PlayUp

The Storm at home are an extremely difficult prospect, but the Broncos should give it a run.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Under 46.5 total match points @ $1.89 with EliteBet
• Storm to win outright @ $1.52 with Bet365

• Date: Friday, 8th of August
• Kick off: 6.00pm AEST
• Venue: McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
• Broadcast info: Fox League

Bookmaker	Knights Odds	Panthers Odds
	$3.70	$1.28
	$4.00	$1.25
	$3.90	$1.26

Match Analysis

The Knights enjoyed a much-needed break from all the losing that they’ve been doing last weekend, with the bye bringing solace from a four-game losing streak which stretches back to mid-June. In fairness that has been a very tough four-game stretch and they’ve been competitive in a couple of them, but it won’t get any easier this weekend when they face the in-form team in the comp in the Panthers.

The four-time reigning Premiers’ slow start to the season is now just a distant memory, and though they have sat outside the top 4 all year, it seems almost a fait accompli that they will earn themselves the double chance. They haven’t lost since May, winning eight on the trot in that time, and with the Warriors faltering and facing tough opposition this weekend, there is every chance Penrith will find themselves inside the top 4 by the end of the round.

The Panthers were admittedly uncharacteristically poor in the second half against the Titans last week, nearly giving up a 24-0 lead and losing Isaah Yeo to a shoulder injury in the process, but nonetheless the betting sites are giving the Knights too much of a chance here. The team which hasn’t missed a Grand Final since 2019 is looking as ominous as ever and has firmed into second-favourite for the flag on the betting apps, and should be able to easily take care of the Knights for a 9th win in a row.

Expert Tip

Panthers -10.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365

The Panthers are playing as well as anyone, while the Knights’ injuries to key players have left them reeling.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Panthers to win by 13+ @ $2.08 with PlayUp
• Under 43.5 total match points @ $1.89 with EliteBet

• Date: Friday, 8th of August
• Kick off: 8.00pm AEST
• Venue: GIO Stadium, Canberra
• Broadcast info: Channel Nine, 9Now, Fox League

Bookmaker	Raiders Odds	Sea Eagles Odds
	$1.44	$2.80
	$1.44	$2.80
	$1.45	$2.80

Match Analysis

After nine consecutive wins, the Raiders finally showed that they are flappable last weekend with a disappointing loss to the Dragons. They remained in top spot despite the loss, but their spot in the top 2 is far from assured, with only one game separating them from both the Storm and the Bulldogs in the two spots below them. But they return home this weekend to a stadium at which they have lost just one game all year, and face a team coming off a really poor performance last weekend.

The Sea Eagles proved once again they can’t be trusted on Saturday, scoring only four points for the second week in a row en route to another really bad defeat, this one to a Roosters team with whom they are fighting for a spot in the eight. Those two games, incredibly, followed a win in Melbourne against the Storm, and that gap between their best and worst must be driving fans in Manly absolutely bonkers.

Of course, that does mean that despite their poor performances over the past fortnight, it’s not outside the realms of possibility that they flick a switch this Friday and play like a completely different team. But after two bad games in a row, it’s virtually impossible to back them to do that, particularly considering how good the Raiders have been at home all year. Expect an immediate bounce back from the home team after a poor performance last weekend.

Expert Tip

Raiders -7.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365

The Sea Eagles are the kind of team that is either brilliant or woeful, so if they lose there is every chance they lose big.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Raiders 13+ @ $2.65 with EliteBet
• Raiders/Raiders half-time/full-time double @ $1.95 with PlayUp

• Date: Saturday, 9th of August 
• Kick off: 3.00pm AEST
• Venue: Jubilee Stadium, Sydney
• Broadcast info: Fox League

Bookmaker	Dragons Odds	Sharks Odds
	$2.85	$1.43
	$2.70	$1.47
	$2.70	$1.48

Match Analysis

Three games in arrears of the top 8 with just five games to go, the Dragons are almost certainly out of the finals race, but if last week is anything to go by they won’t go down without a fight. After four consecutive losses, a fifth seemed almost certain against a Raiders team that had won nine straight, but instead they came out and caused a huge upset to keep their very slim finals hopes alive.

Unfortunately for the Dragons, their opponents this weekend are in pretty good form themselves. The Sharks have now won four games in succession to solidify their spot inside the top 8, last week knocking off the Cowboys in commanding fashion courtesy of a 26-0 first half.

The Sharks have, however, been a lot better at home (8-2) than they have away (4-6) this year, so they certainly can’t expect to just waltz into Jubilee Stadium and come away with the points. The Dragons, particularly if they play like they did last week, can give them a hell of a fight and are not without a chance of pinching this one, but the visitors might just be able to sneak over the line.

Expert Tip

Sharks to win by 1-12 @ $3.25 with Bet365

The Sharks should be expecting to win, but the Dragons can keep it close.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Dragons +6.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365
• Under 46.5 @ $1.89 with EliteBet

• Panthers -10.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365 – The last time these two met, the Knights won 25-6, but since then the Panthers have won eight on the trot and are looking increasingly ominous. Of their last four games, they’ve won three by 20+, and while they only beat the Titans by four points last week, they were up 26-0 at half-time and it was only a mental lapse that let the opposition back in.
• Dolphins to win @ $2.04 with EliteBet – The Dolphins have been one of the better teams in the league over the past couple of months, losing just two of their last seven games. While the Roosters are playing solid footy too, the Dolphins deserve to be favourites on their home turf and look like value here.
• Rabbitohs to win @ $2.75 with PlayUp – It’s hard to justify betting on the Rabbitohs given their recent form and particularly their effort last week, but any time the Titans are as short as they are in this game, the opposition has to be considered. In a game between two poor teams, the comfortable outsider looks like the clear value pick.

Same Game Multi Tip

• Date: Saturday, 9th of August
• Kick off: 5.30pm AEST
• Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
• Broadcast info: Fox League

Bookmaker	Dolphins Odds	Roosters Odds
	$2.00	$1.81
	$2.00	$1.82
	$2.04	$1.80

Match Analysis

In terms of the race for spots inside the top 8, this is the most significant game of the weekend and one of the biggest of the season to date. The Dolphins have been terrific of late, and their brilliant run continued with a scintillating last-minute victory against the Warriors last weekend, a 78th minute try to Jamayne Isaako ultimately handing them a two-point victory to keep them a game clear in 8th.

The team they sit one spot ahead of, however, could very easily close that gap this weekend. The Roosters are fresh off a really solid 20-4 win over the Sea Eagles which broke a two-game losing streak, a victory which saw them jump up a spot to 9th and within touching distance of the Dolphins.

For the Roosters, a win would get them to within only points difference of the top 8 with a month to go. A Dolphins win, however, would likely give them a two-game buffer on the chasing pack, assuming the Sea Eagles lose to the Raiders. It should be a high-intensity, tense affair, but given the Dolphins’ recent form, they look like great value at better than even money odds.

Expert Tip

Dolphins to win @ $2.04 with EliteBet

The Dolphins have been in excellent form of late.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Over 48.5 total match points @ $1.91 with Bet365
• Dolphins to win by 1-12 @ $3.35 with PlayUp

• Date: Saturday, 9th of August
• Kick off: 7.35pm AEST
• Venue: Accor Stadium, Sydney
• Broadcast info: Channel Nine, 9Now, Fox League

Bookmaker	Bulldogs Odds	Warriors Odds
	$1.38	$3.10
	$1.38	$3.10
	$1.37	$3.20

Match Analysis

These two teams might both be sitting inside the top 4, but there is a chasm between the way they have been playing of late. That’s not exactly because the Bulldogs have been in sparkling form; they were really poor last week in going down by 14 points to the Tigers, though prior to that they had won three in a row and the latter of those was an impressive win over the Sea Eagles.

But the Warriors are struggling immensely, and look almost certain to slip outside of the top 4 in the coming weeks, if not this week. They have lost four of their last six games including their last two, and over the past fortnight have inexplicably lost to the Titans, before conceding a last-minute try to lose to the Dolphins last weekend.

The Bulldogs officially lost their hold on a top 2 spot following last week’s loss and will be hard-pressed to get it back given the form of the Storm and Raiders, but they should be able to keep touch with a victory this weekend. The Warriors have actually been decent away from home this year, but the Bulldogs are a tough team to beat at home and can resign the visitors to a third straight loss, and probably boot them from the top 4.

Expert Tip

Bulldogs -8.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Over 43.5 total match points @ $1.89 with EliteBet
• Bulldogs/Bulldogs half-time/full-time double @ $1.85 with Bet365

• Date: Sunday, 10th of August
• Kick off: 2.00pm AEST
• Venue: CommBank Stadium, Sydney
• Broadcast info: Fox League

Bookmaker	Titans Odds	Rabbitohs Odds
	$1.45	$2.75
	$1.47	$2.70
	$1.49	$2.68

Match Analysis

It’s safe to say that it hasn’t been a particularly good season for the Titans, but over the past three weeks they have been a whole lot better. Following a one-point loss to the Tigers and then a surprise defeat of the Sea Eagles, they took it right up to the Panthers last weekend and very nearly caused one of the upsets of the season, coming back from 24-0 down at half-time to force extra time before conceding an 82nd minute try.

The Rabbitohs, in contrast, have continued to slip further as the season has worn on and a couple of weeks ago fell below the Titans into bottom spot. They’ve now lost nine games in a row, and while many of those have been competitive, there is not much positive to say about a performance last week in which they conceded 60 points to the Broncos en route to a 46-point loss.

After a great weekend of footy, Sunday is a bit of a letdown, but this does at least afford these two clubs an opportunity to secure a rare win in what has been a difficult season for them both. The Titans, after their past few weeks, deserve to be favourites, but I’m certainly not going near them at such short odds. In a game between two subpar, unpredictable teams, the Rabbitohs are the value pick at close to $3.

Expert Tip

Rabbitohs to win @ $2.75 with PlayUp

The Titans deserve to be favourites, but anything could happen in this game so I’m going with the value.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Rabbitohs +6.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365
• Under 53.5 total match points @ $1.89 with EliteBet

• Date: Sunday, 10th of August
• Kick off: 4.05pm AEST
• Venue: CommBank Stadium, Sydney
• Broadcast info: Channel Nine, 9Now, Fox League

Bookmaker	Eels Odds	Cowboys Odds
	$1.60	$2.35
	$1.58	$2.40
	$1.62	$2.34

Match Analysis

The round concludes with another game between two struggling teams with something to prove, though each have put in some decent performances of late. The Eels have had an incredibly difficult month of games against arguably the four best teams in the business, and they’ve lost no fans during the past fortnight having beaten the Broncos and got within six points of the Storm.

The Cowboys have been a little more erratic – no surprises there – having picked up a win against the Dragons a fortnight ago before losing comfortably to the Sharks last weekend. They’ve now lost four of their last five, though they have at least avoided the blowouts which popped up now and then earlier in the season during that stage.

Similar to the previous game, this is one in which I don’t feel particularly confident backing either team. The Eels are certainly in better form, but they’re not exactly world beaters and it’s hard to justify backing them at such short odds. This could go either way, which makes the Cowboys look like another value pick to conclude the round’s action.

Expert Tip

Cowboys to win @ $2.40 with Bet365

The Eels are in better form, but the Cowboys look like value at long-ish odds.

Alternative Bets to Consider

• Cowboys +4.5 @ $1.91 with Bet365
• Over 47.5 total match points @ $1.89 with EliteBet