NRL – Top 8 NRL 2025 Betting Odds & Expert’s Predictions

This season looks set to be one of the tightest races for the NRL’s finals in recent memory, with virtually every team with the exception of the Titans within striking distance of the top 8, even well into the back half of the season. But while there is a clear top ten likely to make up that eight according to betting sites, there are numerous teams that could throw their hat in the ring very quickly with an upset win or two, and some potentially great value to be had as a result. Take a look below at some of the main contenders to play finals who still boast decent odds in the NRL top 8 betting market, as well as some value outsiders.

As you can see, four teams have already all but locked themselves into the top 8 while a couple of others look unlikely to miss, but with just a game or two separating the bulk of the ladder, some of those longer odds teams look like pretty good value to snatch one of the last couple of spots.

The Sharks are once again in the midst of a season in which they look likely to play finals, but not good enough to realistically do much damage once there. An 8-7 record through their first 15 games was enough to have them in 6th, but a deeper dive into that record doesn’t read all that well; against the seven other teams in the top 8 at that point, they boasted a 1-6 record.

Still, this market is about the top 8, not winning the flag, and with a reasonably friendly run home they should be good enough. They could still very easily fall out, however, and at sub-$1.20 in the NRL top 8 betting market they look too short.

The Broncos began what they hoped would be a bounce back year with four wins from their first five games, but since then they have gradually come back to the pack. They went 0-4 throughout May with their offence really struggling, culminating in a horrendous 34-6 loss to the Sea Eagles in Round 13.

Despite the inconsistency, the talent is still there and they recovered with consecutive wins after that, but they’re a tough team to trust at the moment. They should be playing finals, but I wouldn’t feel particularly comfortable about betting on them to make it at such short odds. 

The loss of numerous key names, including Jarome Luai, Sunia Turuva and James Fisher-Harris, was always going to hurt the Panthers, but they still entered the season as the close favourites with the Storm to win what would be an incredible fifth straight Premiership. But after a Round 1 win, they lost, then lost again, then just kept losing until they found themselves at 2-6 and with some serious problems.

But they were always going to kick into gear eventually – it was just a matter of when. And lo and behold, by the end of June they’d evened up their record at 7-1-7. The Panthers are still very much in the Premiership race, and it would be an enormous surprise to see them miss the finals from here. Their odds will continue to shorten and while they’re already not particularly good value, of the odds-on chances they’re the one I’d feel most confident in.

The Roosters’ 2025 season was always going to be an interesting one after the mass exodus they endured in the off-season, and there were some grim early signs – namely a 50-14 loss in Round 1 and four defeats from their first five games. But they’ve bounced back strongly, reversing their 2-5 record from their first seven games to go 5-2 in their next seven.

They’re not the barnstorming offence they have been in seasons past, but they’re still a decent team and have had some good results against quality teams. At $1.70 they are reasonable value to make the 8, but with so many teams sitting just below them I’d still be a little hesitant to trust them at those odds.

As they have been in each of their three seasons of existence, the Dolphins are on the brink of their debut finals appearance this year. 15 games into the season they found themselves just in the red at 7-8, but a points difference of +140 at that point – second only to the Storm – is indicative of the fact that they could easily be better placed.

During a three-game winning streak in June they put up an incredible 44, 56 and then 58 points while restricting their opponents – which included the Bulldogs – to a single-figure score every time, a span during which they genuinely looked like just about the best team in the league. They’re not, but if anything like that form can be maintained over the remaining couple of months of the season, they are great value to play finals.

Who knows what to make of the Sea Eagles. At their best, they’re great, capable of knocking off quality teams, at times pretty easily. At their worst, they go down by 20 points. In fact, they managed both those feats within a three-week span recently, pumping the Broncos by 28 points before losing to the Titans 28-8 a fortnight later.

With their top-end talent they should be in the mix and likely will be, but they are a very hard team to trust and I’d want better odds than are currently on offer to bet on them in this market.

Now to the real outsiders, starting with the Bunnies – who sat in second last 16 rounds into the season. But as we know, that doesn’t mean much, and with a couple of wins they could be just about back in the top 8. After a tumultuous 2024, Wayne Bennett’s triumphant return started with a 6-5 record, but four losses in a row sent to 6-9 and 16th place.

Those losses, however, all came against the top four teams, and three of them were by 6 points or less. The Bunnies have consistently been competitive with good teams, and with a less extensive injury list than they’ve been used to in recent years, they could easily turn things around and put themselves in the finals mix. The $7 on offer in NRL top 8 betting markets looks too long at this point.

The Tigers have had a similar season to the Rabbitohs so far. After finishing last three years in a row, this is clearly the best list Benji Marshall has been in charge of thanks in no small part to the additions from the Panthers, and a 5-4 start suggest as much. Unfortunately, a dreadful 64-0 loss to the Storm kickstarted a five-game losing streak to send them to 5-9. The last three of those losses, however, all came by four points.

The Tigers are realistically not far off the plethora of mid-table teams in the NRL at the moment, and while they are a couple of games back, the $21 on offer with Bet365 for them to make the top 8 looks way too long and will shorten drastically if they pick up a couple of surprise wins.

The top four are already virtually locked into the top 8, but beyond that there are spots up for grabs. The bookies already have a couple of others as seemingly close to certainties, but the likes of the Sharks look too short – which in turn makes plenty of other teams look like good value. Of the odds-on chances, the Panthers are my pick, even if they are relatively short – it’s really hard to see them missing out from here.

At longer odds, the Dolphins have been in great form and look like a decent bet, but I’d go beyond that to an even more rank outsider. The Rabbitohs’ four-game losing streak in June was about as impressive as it could be, and with their draw opening up expect them to pick up a couple of wins, move quickly up the ladder. The $7 odds on offer at the time of writing will quickly shorten if they do, so they look like a great value pick at longer odds. 

Below are a couple of key things to remember when diving into the NRL top 8 betting market.

• Fixtures are key: The ladder waxes and wanes all season long, and while many people look at it as a close representative of how good each team is, that isn’t the reality. Teams like the Rabbitohs currently are a good example; they’ve had a really rough run and lost some tough games competitively, but if they can keep in touch with the eight they’ve got a soft last month. 
• This is a volatile market: In a way so are most markets, but the NRL top 8 betting market will wax and wane more often than, for example, the Premiership market. While a couple of wins or losses doesn’t necessarily change who are the legitimate contenders, it can rapidly impact who looks likely to make the finals, which is why I tend to avoid the teams at shorter odds in this market. 

Take a look at all the Wooden Spoon winners from the last decade, and the records that saw them finish last.