NRL – Top 8 NRL 2025 Betting Odds & Expert’s Predictions

The 2025 season has been an enthralling one for many reasons, with the race for spots in the lower half of the top eight just one of them. Now, with only a couple of games left in the season, just one spot remains up for grabs, with three teams still fighting for it. The Roosters have put themselves in the box seat, but the Dolphins are right on their hammer, while the Sea Eagles are loitering a little further back as a long-odds outsider. Take a look below at the NRL top 8 betting market as we near finals time.

As you can see, just three teams remain in the NRL top 8 betting market, with the Roosters and Dolphins clearly the two most likely to earn the coveted last spot in the finals.

The Roosters were always going to take a step back this year after losing so many important players during the off-season, but while any Premiership ambitions they might harbour are probably overly optimistic, they have done well to remain a good team capable of playing at a very high level.

The Chooks spent the entire first half of the year outside the top eight – albeit only marginally – but jumped inside it for the first time in Round 15, in the midst of a month in which they had two byes (and an automatic two points each time as a result) sandwiched by a couple of wins.

But it’s been the final few weeks of the season in which they have really made their mark. Back out of the eight entering Round 22, they beat the Sea Eagles by 16 before pumping the Dolphins by 52 and then trouncing the top-four Bulldogs by 20. Unfortunately, with a chance to solidify 8th spot, they subsequently lost to the Eels by 20, but despite that they remain in the box seat with two games to go.

The Roosters are a game clear of both the Dolphins and Sea Eagles, but the former has a very similar points difference, so if they win one more game than the Roosters they will likely take their spot. Unfortunately for the Chooks, they face the Storm in a very tough Round 26 matchup, meaning whether or not they make finals may come down to their final round clash against old enemy the Rabbitohs, who they may need to beat heavily. The ball is in their court, but I don’t love the value at such short odds.

Bet on the Roosters to make the top 8 @ $1.45 with PlayUp

In their first season without Wayne Bennett at the helm, finals looked a long way away a month into the 2025 season for the Dolphins. They lost their first four games, and not exactly to Premiership contenders, but after ending that streak against the Titans they impressively beat the Storm and then Panthers in succession to climb back up the ladder.

It's been a topsy turvy season since then, but at their best the Dolphins have been dangerous to say the least. That best saw them beat the Bulldogs, Dragons and then Cowboys in succession by a total of 140 points, putting up mammoth total after mammoth total to establish themselves as one of the best teams to watch in the league.

Unfortunately they have been unable to consistently sustain that, and three consecutive losses which began with a demoralising 52-point defeat to the Roosters in Round 23 have seen them fall out of the eight. But all is not yet lost in their hunt for an inaugural finals appearance.

More than likely, if the Dolphins win one more game than the Roosters over the last two weeks of the season, they’ll play finals. The Chooks will almost certainly win one but probably lose the other, meaning the Dolphins will have to win both, but they’re capable of doing that.

Their first task is to beat the Titans, which really shouldn’t be an issue. Much tougher is their final round clash against the Raiders. The Dolphins will enter that game potentially with a win meaning finals, and a loss meaning they miss. For the Raiders it may be a game to determine whether they finish top or second, though they would prefer to face the Warriors in the Qualifying Final – and we don’t know whether that means finishing 1st or 2nd just yet. It’s safe to say there are plenty of permutations, but the Dolphins are capable of competing in that game. Their backs are against the wall, but the Dolphins could very likely be in 8th come the end of Round 26 and their odds may shorten a little, so particularly at over $4 with Bet365 they look like the value bet to me.

Bet on the Dolphins to make the top 8 @ $4.33 with Bet365

The Sea Eagles once again find themselves right around the mid-section of the NRL ladder this year, but it appears more likely than not that they will drop back out of the finals after finishing 7th in 2024. Things started promisingly with three wins from their first four games and they’ve put in numerous very impressive performances since, but consistency has been notably absent from their season and as the year has worn on, the bad has begun to outweigh the good.

The Sea Eagles were inside the top 8 as recently as Round 20 after winning three consecutive games, but they fell off a cliff thereafter, with a 38-point loss kickstarting a four-game losing streak – with every defeat coming by at least 14 points. They bounced back with a dominant win over the Dolphins which kept them in with an outside chance of finals in Round 25, but mostly that just served to further fans’ frustration at their inconsistency.

Still, at least it gave them a chance, but a very poor points difference means they need a lot to go right. For the Sea Eagles to play finals, they need to first win both of their last two games – feasible, against the Dragons and Warriors. But they also need the Roosters to lose both of theirs – which would include being defeated by the Rabbitohs – and the Dolphins to win a maximum of one. It’s not entirely out of the realms of possibility and with those teams’ respective matchups in Round 26, it could all come down to the last game of the season. But while they’ve at least kept themselves in the hunt till the end, too much needs to go right for the Sea Eagles from here.

Bet on the Sea Eagles to make the top 8 @ $15.00 with PlayUp

The NRL top 8 betting market has been an interesting one all season, and that remains the case with just a fortnight to go until finals. We can start by ruling the Sea Eagles out – they’re still theoretically in the hunt but it’s very hard to imagine everything that they need to happen actually happening.

Which leaves us with the Roosters and Dolphins. If the Roosters win both games, they’re in, and there is a good chance that even beating the Rabbitohs will be enough. But the Dolphins have the capacity to leapfrog them with two wins, which is not out of their reach. In terms of head-to-head chances the Roosters are certainly in the box seat, but the Dolphins look like the value pick with a couple of weeks remaining the season.

Below are a couple of key things to remember when diving into the NRL top 8 betting market.

• Fixtures are key: The ladder waxes and wanes all season long, and while many people look at it as a close representative of how good each team is, that isn’t the reality. Teams like the Rabbitohs currently are a good example; they’ve had a really rough run and lost some tough games competitively, but if they can keep in touch with the eight they’ve got a soft last month.
• This is a volatile market: In a way so are most markets, but the NRL top 8 betting market will wax and wane more often than, for example, the Premiership market. While a couple of wins or losses doesn’t necessarily change who are the legitimate contenders, it can rapidly impact who looks likely to make the finals, which is why I tend to avoid the teams at shorter odds in this market.

Take a look at all the Wooden Spoon winners from the last decade, and the records that saw them finish last.